Ranking the Rosters: Lineups
Feb 2, 2012 22:47:53 GMT -5
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Feb 2, 2012 22:47:53 GMT -5
Over two-thirds of the league participated in the Ranking the Rosters: Lineups Poll, and over two-thirds of the league received two or more votes to be considered among the top ten lineups in the league. This speaks to the parity and competitive nature of this league, and I am glad so many teams are putting such an effort into fielding a solid squad even when many of them are prioritizing the future to the present.
It seems to me that the league is much more balanced than it was one year ago, and though I never posted the power rankings last year, I can tell you that I had a much easier time ranking the teams for the rough draft of those power rankings last year than I did differentiating between lineups this year, because so many teams are extremely close when it comes to the talent of their offense. In the end, I turned to the Lineups Poll for guidance.
Even before the poll was created, I had a pretty good sense of which teams I'd be putting as the top four and what order they'd be in. Sure enough, the poll did show that those four lineups are considered the best in the league, but in a different order than I would rank them personally. As I've said, I'm using the polls as a guides rather than letting them dictate my exact top ten, and have chosen to keep the top four teams ranked the way I believe they should be ranked rather than re-order them based on the results of the poll.
It was much more difficult to rank the teams between fifth and tenth, and for these teams I turned to the poll for guidance much more. I decided that since there were exactly ten teams receiving seven or more votes in the poll at the time of this writing, those were the teams I'd go with, and I can tell you that had it not been for the poll, at least two of the teams that ended up on this list might not have been on it. With that said, I believe that all ten of these lineups deserve to be in this conversation, and am very pleased with the following top ten list.
So here they are:
Honorable Mention: Miami Marlins
Dark Horses: Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles
10. Cleveland Indians
Key Players: Curtis Granderson, Michael Bourn, Asdrubal Cabrera
Breakout Candidate: Jason Kipnis
With Granderson, Cabrera, and Michael Cuddyer each coming off one of the best years of their respective careers, the Indians will be hoping for more of the same in 2012 from each of those players. After Granderson, however, the Indians lack star-power, although Bourn is among the best base stealing options in the game. Nick Swisher is a solid option in the third outfield slot, and the Indians will be hoping for Chris Davis and Chris Iannetta to reach potential that they haven’t yet tapped into. At third base the Indians turn to Jimmy Paredes, who will be a regular in 2012, while at second they employ the talents of breakout candidate Jason Kipnis, who impressed in 2011.
9. San Francisco Giants
Key Players: Robinson Cano, Buster Posey, Starlin Castro
Breakout Candidate: Mike Trout
In Cano, Posey, and Castro, the Giants have a solid core of three great players at positions where top offensive players are a rarity, meaning that if they do need to add reinforcements during the season, they’ll have an easier time finding them than most teams because solid bats in the outfield and at the corner infield positions are simply more plentiful. Given the makeup of the rest of the Giants’ lineup, it would not be surprising to see them forced to turn to the trade market to fill some holes later in the season. Super-prospect Mike Trout leads the lineup and should be great, but comes with the usual disclaimers attached to all prospects. The remaining prospects in the lineup come with even bigger question marks. Will Yonder Alonso find playing time in a crowded lineup, and how will he hit in a pitchers’ park? Is it Brandon Belt time yet, or is that another year away? Will Jerry Sands find a way to win at bats in 2012? Meanwhile, Cody Ross and Chris Heisey are the candidates to fill the designated hitter spot, while Edwin Encarnacion completes the lineup.
8. Colorado Rockies
Key Players: Troy Tulowitzki, Adrian Gonzalez, Cameron Maybin
Breakout Candidate: Domonic Brown
With a mixture of top fantasy players, promising prospects, and unsexy veterans, the Giants and Rockies are in a similar situation offensively, but the Rockies edge the Giants due to superior talent from their top players. Only the Reds boast a better one-two punch in the middle of the batting order than Tulowitzki and Gonzalez, and the appeal of Colorado’s lineup doesn’t end there. The top of the order belongs to Maybin, who is finally beginning to live up to the promise seen in him when he was taken tenth overall in a draft where the first twelve picks yielded ten solid major league players, seven of them All-Stars. Adam Jones is solid as well, but the rest of this lineup has too many potential holes to be ranked higher than this. Like the Giants, the Rockies are relying on prospects with question marks to fill numerous positions, including Kyle Seager at third, D.J. Lemahieu at second, and breakout candidate Brown in the outfield - will he find a way into the everyday lineup, or will he be sent down to AAA, or worse, stagnate on the bench? Nate Schierholtz should manage acceptable but unsexy production in the DH spot, as should Ramon Hernandez at catcher.
7. Chicago Cubs
Key Players: Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer, Adam Dunn
Breakout Candidate: Dayan Viciedo
The team that went into 2011 with the best lineup in the league was expected to suffer for their short-sighted approach, but under a new GM the Cubs have taken advantage of some buy-low opportunities to retool their lineup. The Cubs will be looking for Ramirez, Mauer, Dunn, and Pedro Alvarez to bounce back from disappointing seasons, but a rebound of some sort seems likely in all four cases. The Cubs are solid up the middle, with Jemile Weeks at second, Ramirez at short, and Mauer at catcher (backed up by Geovanny Soto), meaning they’re much better off at these shallow fantasy positions than most teams are. Where they lack a little luster is at the deeper fantasy positions: the Cubs will receive merely average production from their three outfield spots, with Nyjer Morgan, Jose Tabata, and Delmon Young. They have their breakout candidate at DH, where they will be hoping Viciedo’s 2011 AAA numbers translate into 2012 MLB success.
6. Kansas City Royals
Key Players: Josh Hamilton, Pablo Sandoval, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer
Breakout Candidate: Wil Myers
Will Myers follow Hosmer as the next big Kansas City bat to charge onto the field next year? If so, he’ll join an already crowded outfield with Hamilton, Gordon, and Denard Span. Assuming Gordon builds on his 2011 success, Span seems the most likely to move over and make room for the prospect. First base and DH are equally crowded, if not more so, with Hosmer and Billy Butler relegating Derrek Lee to the bench. At third base, Sandoval is one of the better fantasy options, while Salvador Perez is already gaining some hype at catcher. The middle infield, however, is uninspiring, with veteran options like Freddy Sanchez, Rafael Furcal, and Yuniesky Betancourt to choose from to make up the double play combination.
5. Seattle Mariners
Key Players: Mark Teixeira, Rickie Weeks, Kevin Youkilis, Brett Gardner
Breakout Candidate: Carlos Santana
This is just a solid lineup, one through eight. The ninth spot, manned by Tsuyoshi Nishioka, is the question mark. The Mariners will be hoping Nishioka breaks out, in which case they’d have a bargain at short stop in 2013 when they can retain him as a third year player. He fills the last spot in a lineup full of promise. Led by Gardner’s speed and anchored by Teixeira’s power (with both players due to bounce back in the batting average department), this lineup also features one of the top second basemen in Weeks and, if he can hit for a better average, one of the potential top catchers in breakout candidate Santana. Kevin Youkilis serves as a solid DH, and Headley will hold his own at third. The outfield after Gardner is nothing special, but Torii Hunter should be fine and the platoon of Will Venable, Seth Smith, and Andres Torres will hopefully produce at least one decent option.
4. Boston Red Sox
Key Players: Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Beltre, Hunter Pence
Breakout Candidate: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
The defending American League Champion Red Sox would be a solid bet to defend their crown in the playoffs – if they played in a different division. Unfortunately, the third best lineup in the AL is also the third best lineup in the AL East. That’s not to say they won’t make the playoffs, but they’re going to be one of at least three AL East teams fighting for one of at most two playoff berths. The Red Sox go to battle with Ellsbury leading the way, coming off an MVP-caliber season in 2011. He is joined in an outstanding outfield by Pence and Chris Young. David Ortiz, who impressed in 2010 and particularly in 2011 despite showing some worrying signs of decline in 2008 and 2009, could make or break this team depending on the kind of year he has in the DH spot, while Dustin Pedroia and Adrian Beltre will provide solid production at 2B and 3B. Todd Helton and Alex Gonzalez round out the infield. Saltalamacchia is my breakout candidate for a few reasons: first, because despite being a big, slow, power hitting, strikeout-prone catcher, he hits a surprising number of line drives and has a chance to up his average to the mid .200s. Second, because he tallied 42 XBHs (16 HRs) in fewer than 400 plate appearances last year. Third, because Josh Reddick likely won’t find a spot in this Red Sox lineup even if he does break out this year given the outfield talent on this team.
3. Cincinnati Reds
Key Players: Jose Bautista, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Shane Victorino
Breakout Candidate: Devin Mesoraco
The two big bats in the middle of the Reds’ lineup compare favorably to the rest of the league. No other team besides the Rockies boasts two truly elite, first-round fantasy offensive talent, and even the Rockies' pair is a step below this one. So why are the Reds only third? Unlike the teams ahead of them, the Reds appear a little weak at some of the shallower fantasy positions, such as catcher, where Ryan Hanigan serves merely as a place holder for breakout candidate Mesoraco. And while Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar will hold their own in the middle of the Reds’ infield, neither is likely to achieve anything more than solid numbers. The best lineup in the National League also has a weakness at Designated Hitter, where the Reds may be looking to replace Juan Francisco, but don’t currently have the depth to do it. Victorino and Drew Stubbs add some speed to the power provided by Bautista, Votto, and Bruce, and if that DH spot were to be filled with a more productive piece, this team would rise one or two more spots on this list.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Key Players: Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen, Mike Stanton, Ryan Zimmerman
Breakout Candidate: Zack Cozart
For the second straight year, the Rays’ hopes are riding on the shoulders of youngsters. This year, they are Desmond Jennings, Freddie Freeman, and Dustin Ackley. It worked last year, as the Rays snuck in to an unexpected Wild Card berth, and this year, the lineup has much more impressive veteran presence with Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Zimmerman acquired through free agency. This bodes well for the Rays, but they have to hope that Jennings, Freeman, and Ackley follow in the footsteps of McCutchen, Stanton, and Matt Wieters (who are back) rather than in the footsteps of some of the Rays’ less successful youngsters from last year, which could lead them right out the door. Sophomore slumps must be avoided, but there’s no doubt that the Rays are in a more comfortable position than they were one year ago. Meanwhile, the Rays’ biggest hole could be at shortstop, which will be fine if breakout candidate Cozart impresses in the starting role, but could become a problem if he struggles early and loses at bats.
1. Toronto Blue Jays
Key Players: Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Nelson Cruz, Dan Uggla, Paul Konerko
Breakout Candidate: Anthony Rizzo
Put together a lineup of these same players with the clock set back one year, and there’d be no doubt which was the best lineup in the league. Four of these players had career years in 2010 (Gonzalez, Cruz, Uggla, and Martin Prado), two were bright up-and-comers (Logan Morrison and J.P. Arencibia), and two had once again done just what was expected of them in putting up dominant fantasy seasons (Konerko and Holliday). The only question mark would have been the short stop, Jhonny Peralta. Come back to 2012, and Peralta is the player coming off of a career year, while some of the others performed a tick below expectations. However, that’s only enough to narrow the gap between the Blue Jays and the runners up, and not enough to close it completely. Despite their “struggles,” these nine players hit a combined 224 HRs in 2011, an average of 25 HRs per player. Just one player (Prado) hit fewer than 20 HRs last year. Meanwhile, it is reasonable to expect sizable rebounds in batting average from Uggla, Morrison, and Prado. Rizzo is the breakout candidate, as he has a chance to be a much better hitter outside of Petco Park and can fill in at 1B or DH, with Konerko, Morrision, or one of the outfielders making room. There's other depth as well, meaning the Blue Jays have plenty of insurance should they lose for an extended period of time any members of the best lineup in the league.
Debate away!
It seems to me that the league is much more balanced than it was one year ago, and though I never posted the power rankings last year, I can tell you that I had a much easier time ranking the teams for the rough draft of those power rankings last year than I did differentiating between lineups this year, because so many teams are extremely close when it comes to the talent of their offense. In the end, I turned to the Lineups Poll for guidance.
Even before the poll was created, I had a pretty good sense of which teams I'd be putting as the top four and what order they'd be in. Sure enough, the poll did show that those four lineups are considered the best in the league, but in a different order than I would rank them personally. As I've said, I'm using the polls as a guides rather than letting them dictate my exact top ten, and have chosen to keep the top four teams ranked the way I believe they should be ranked rather than re-order them based on the results of the poll.
It was much more difficult to rank the teams between fifth and tenth, and for these teams I turned to the poll for guidance much more. I decided that since there were exactly ten teams receiving seven or more votes in the poll at the time of this writing, those were the teams I'd go with, and I can tell you that had it not been for the poll, at least two of the teams that ended up on this list might not have been on it. With that said, I believe that all ten of these lineups deserve to be in this conversation, and am very pleased with the following top ten list.
So here they are:
Honorable Mention: Miami Marlins
Dark Horses: Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles
10. Cleveland Indians
Key Players: Curtis Granderson, Michael Bourn, Asdrubal Cabrera
Breakout Candidate: Jason Kipnis
With Granderson, Cabrera, and Michael Cuddyer each coming off one of the best years of their respective careers, the Indians will be hoping for more of the same in 2012 from each of those players. After Granderson, however, the Indians lack star-power, although Bourn is among the best base stealing options in the game. Nick Swisher is a solid option in the third outfield slot, and the Indians will be hoping for Chris Davis and Chris Iannetta to reach potential that they haven’t yet tapped into. At third base the Indians turn to Jimmy Paredes, who will be a regular in 2012, while at second they employ the talents of breakout candidate Jason Kipnis, who impressed in 2011.
9. San Francisco Giants
Key Players: Robinson Cano, Buster Posey, Starlin Castro
Breakout Candidate: Mike Trout
In Cano, Posey, and Castro, the Giants have a solid core of three great players at positions where top offensive players are a rarity, meaning that if they do need to add reinforcements during the season, they’ll have an easier time finding them than most teams because solid bats in the outfield and at the corner infield positions are simply more plentiful. Given the makeup of the rest of the Giants’ lineup, it would not be surprising to see them forced to turn to the trade market to fill some holes later in the season. Super-prospect Mike Trout leads the lineup and should be great, but comes with the usual disclaimers attached to all prospects. The remaining prospects in the lineup come with even bigger question marks. Will Yonder Alonso find playing time in a crowded lineup, and how will he hit in a pitchers’ park? Is it Brandon Belt time yet, or is that another year away? Will Jerry Sands find a way to win at bats in 2012? Meanwhile, Cody Ross and Chris Heisey are the candidates to fill the designated hitter spot, while Edwin Encarnacion completes the lineup.
8. Colorado Rockies
Key Players: Troy Tulowitzki, Adrian Gonzalez, Cameron Maybin
Breakout Candidate: Domonic Brown
With a mixture of top fantasy players, promising prospects, and unsexy veterans, the Giants and Rockies are in a similar situation offensively, but the Rockies edge the Giants due to superior talent from their top players. Only the Reds boast a better one-two punch in the middle of the batting order than Tulowitzki and Gonzalez, and the appeal of Colorado’s lineup doesn’t end there. The top of the order belongs to Maybin, who is finally beginning to live up to the promise seen in him when he was taken tenth overall in a draft where the first twelve picks yielded ten solid major league players, seven of them All-Stars. Adam Jones is solid as well, but the rest of this lineup has too many potential holes to be ranked higher than this. Like the Giants, the Rockies are relying on prospects with question marks to fill numerous positions, including Kyle Seager at third, D.J. Lemahieu at second, and breakout candidate Brown in the outfield - will he find a way into the everyday lineup, or will he be sent down to AAA, or worse, stagnate on the bench? Nate Schierholtz should manage acceptable but unsexy production in the DH spot, as should Ramon Hernandez at catcher.
7. Chicago Cubs
Key Players: Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer, Adam Dunn
Breakout Candidate: Dayan Viciedo
The team that went into 2011 with the best lineup in the league was expected to suffer for their short-sighted approach, but under a new GM the Cubs have taken advantage of some buy-low opportunities to retool their lineup. The Cubs will be looking for Ramirez, Mauer, Dunn, and Pedro Alvarez to bounce back from disappointing seasons, but a rebound of some sort seems likely in all four cases. The Cubs are solid up the middle, with Jemile Weeks at second, Ramirez at short, and Mauer at catcher (backed up by Geovanny Soto), meaning they’re much better off at these shallow fantasy positions than most teams are. Where they lack a little luster is at the deeper fantasy positions: the Cubs will receive merely average production from their three outfield spots, with Nyjer Morgan, Jose Tabata, and Delmon Young. They have their breakout candidate at DH, where they will be hoping Viciedo’s 2011 AAA numbers translate into 2012 MLB success.
6. Kansas City Royals
Key Players: Josh Hamilton, Pablo Sandoval, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer
Breakout Candidate: Wil Myers
Will Myers follow Hosmer as the next big Kansas City bat to charge onto the field next year? If so, he’ll join an already crowded outfield with Hamilton, Gordon, and Denard Span. Assuming Gordon builds on his 2011 success, Span seems the most likely to move over and make room for the prospect. First base and DH are equally crowded, if not more so, with Hosmer and Billy Butler relegating Derrek Lee to the bench. At third base, Sandoval is one of the better fantasy options, while Salvador Perez is already gaining some hype at catcher. The middle infield, however, is uninspiring, with veteran options like Freddy Sanchez, Rafael Furcal, and Yuniesky Betancourt to choose from to make up the double play combination.
5. Seattle Mariners
Key Players: Mark Teixeira, Rickie Weeks, Kevin Youkilis, Brett Gardner
Breakout Candidate: Carlos Santana
This is just a solid lineup, one through eight. The ninth spot, manned by Tsuyoshi Nishioka, is the question mark. The Mariners will be hoping Nishioka breaks out, in which case they’d have a bargain at short stop in 2013 when they can retain him as a third year player. He fills the last spot in a lineup full of promise. Led by Gardner’s speed and anchored by Teixeira’s power (with both players due to bounce back in the batting average department), this lineup also features one of the top second basemen in Weeks and, if he can hit for a better average, one of the potential top catchers in breakout candidate Santana. Kevin Youkilis serves as a solid DH, and Headley will hold his own at third. The outfield after Gardner is nothing special, but Torii Hunter should be fine and the platoon of Will Venable, Seth Smith, and Andres Torres will hopefully produce at least one decent option.
4. Boston Red Sox
Key Players: Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Beltre, Hunter Pence
Breakout Candidate: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
The defending American League Champion Red Sox would be a solid bet to defend their crown in the playoffs – if they played in a different division. Unfortunately, the third best lineup in the AL is also the third best lineup in the AL East. That’s not to say they won’t make the playoffs, but they’re going to be one of at least three AL East teams fighting for one of at most two playoff berths. The Red Sox go to battle with Ellsbury leading the way, coming off an MVP-caliber season in 2011. He is joined in an outstanding outfield by Pence and Chris Young. David Ortiz, who impressed in 2010 and particularly in 2011 despite showing some worrying signs of decline in 2008 and 2009, could make or break this team depending on the kind of year he has in the DH spot, while Dustin Pedroia and Adrian Beltre will provide solid production at 2B and 3B. Todd Helton and Alex Gonzalez round out the infield. Saltalamacchia is my breakout candidate for a few reasons: first, because despite being a big, slow, power hitting, strikeout-prone catcher, he hits a surprising number of line drives and has a chance to up his average to the mid .200s. Second, because he tallied 42 XBHs (16 HRs) in fewer than 400 plate appearances last year. Third, because Josh Reddick likely won’t find a spot in this Red Sox lineup even if he does break out this year given the outfield talent on this team.
3. Cincinnati Reds
Key Players: Jose Bautista, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Shane Victorino
Breakout Candidate: Devin Mesoraco
The two big bats in the middle of the Reds’ lineup compare favorably to the rest of the league. No other team besides the Rockies boasts two truly elite, first-round fantasy offensive talent, and even the Rockies' pair is a step below this one. So why are the Reds only third? Unlike the teams ahead of them, the Reds appear a little weak at some of the shallower fantasy positions, such as catcher, where Ryan Hanigan serves merely as a place holder for breakout candidate Mesoraco. And while Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar will hold their own in the middle of the Reds’ infield, neither is likely to achieve anything more than solid numbers. The best lineup in the National League also has a weakness at Designated Hitter, where the Reds may be looking to replace Juan Francisco, but don’t currently have the depth to do it. Victorino and Drew Stubbs add some speed to the power provided by Bautista, Votto, and Bruce, and if that DH spot were to be filled with a more productive piece, this team would rise one or two more spots on this list.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Key Players: Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen, Mike Stanton, Ryan Zimmerman
Breakout Candidate: Zack Cozart
For the second straight year, the Rays’ hopes are riding on the shoulders of youngsters. This year, they are Desmond Jennings, Freddie Freeman, and Dustin Ackley. It worked last year, as the Rays snuck in to an unexpected Wild Card berth, and this year, the lineup has much more impressive veteran presence with Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Zimmerman acquired through free agency. This bodes well for the Rays, but they have to hope that Jennings, Freeman, and Ackley follow in the footsteps of McCutchen, Stanton, and Matt Wieters (who are back) rather than in the footsteps of some of the Rays’ less successful youngsters from last year, which could lead them right out the door. Sophomore slumps must be avoided, but there’s no doubt that the Rays are in a more comfortable position than they were one year ago. Meanwhile, the Rays’ biggest hole could be at shortstop, which will be fine if breakout candidate Cozart impresses in the starting role, but could become a problem if he struggles early and loses at bats.
1. Toronto Blue Jays
Key Players: Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Nelson Cruz, Dan Uggla, Paul Konerko
Breakout Candidate: Anthony Rizzo
Put together a lineup of these same players with the clock set back one year, and there’d be no doubt which was the best lineup in the league. Four of these players had career years in 2010 (Gonzalez, Cruz, Uggla, and Martin Prado), two were bright up-and-comers (Logan Morrison and J.P. Arencibia), and two had once again done just what was expected of them in putting up dominant fantasy seasons (Konerko and Holliday). The only question mark would have been the short stop, Jhonny Peralta. Come back to 2012, and Peralta is the player coming off of a career year, while some of the others performed a tick below expectations. However, that’s only enough to narrow the gap between the Blue Jays and the runners up, and not enough to close it completely. Despite their “struggles,” these nine players hit a combined 224 HRs in 2011, an average of 25 HRs per player. Just one player (Prado) hit fewer than 20 HRs last year. Meanwhile, it is reasonable to expect sizable rebounds in batting average from Uggla, Morrison, and Prado. Rizzo is the breakout candidate, as he has a chance to be a much better hitter outside of Petco Park and can fill in at 1B or DH, with Konerko, Morrision, or one of the outfielders making room. There's other depth as well, meaning the Blue Jays have plenty of insurance should they lose for an extended period of time any members of the best lineup in the league.
Debate away!
