Ranking the Rosters: Rotations
Feb 15, 2012 15:41:30 GMT -5
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Feb 15, 2012 15:41:30 GMT -5
Alright, so I took a personal day today just so I could get this finished,* and here it is!
(*Not really, I took a personal day today because I had to go to the DMV to get a new Drivers' License. Not fun.)
Just like in the lineups poll, over two-thirds of the league voted in the poll for the ten best rotations, and over two-thirds of the league received at least two votes. In the lineup poll, however, the team with the tenth most votes had two more votes than the team with the eleventh most, 8 against 6, and even though I didn't 100% agree with the top ten, I chose the ten teams that had received the most votes to best represent the league's overall opinion. In this poll, however, there was a tie between the Mets and the Pirates for tenth. When I started the writeup, the Pirates were ahead of the Mets by one vote. Interestingly, I preferred the Mets' rotation but had voted for both the Mets and the Pirates (one of the 9 teams ahead of them did not receive my vote). I knew I couldn't include both teams in the writeup without failing to include a team that a large number of other people felt deserved to be there. So, I made a decision, and decided to include the Mets over the Pirates, even though the Pirates had more votes at the time and I liked their rotation as well.
However, as I said, at the last minute the Mets received another vote, putting them into a tenth place tie with the Pirates. So why am I telling you all this? Well, I want to illustrate the point that, while I do use the polls as an extremely helpful guide in making these lists, I do not follow them entirely. I try to balance the opinion of the majority with my own opinion, because, as the writer, I need to believe in what I write. As such, these should be read with that anecdote as a disclaimer - the order of the teams in this list might surprise you, but I feel like it is the order that provides the best balance between my opinion and the general opinion of the league. I feel that the Pirates and Mets both deserve a spot in the top ten, but I also feel that the other nine teams deserve one as well; even though I didn't vote for one of those teams, the fact that many people did means it has earned its place here. But this is a top ten, not a top eleven, and there have to be casualties.
I also want to mention that, with the lineups, there was a clear top four, and I was fairly confident in what the order of those top four would be even before creating the poll. With the rotations, however, I saw a clear top five but had no idea what order I would put them in, even after having written up paragraphs for teams 6-10. But, I thought about it more, received some input from other GMs, and finally wrote the paragraphs for those five teams. I settled on an order, and finally posted this. But then right away I changed my mind and went back and flipped two teams, and also flipped two teams in the 6-10 range. Some of you who were on right when I posted this might have even noticed the change, but if not, I'm not going to tell you what it was, so don't ask. All I will say is that it did not involve my own team. Regardless, it should be clear that I think all five of those teams have very strong rotations and are quite close to each other in talent, with near-microscopic differences. That said, you should all still feel free to scrutinize and debate about the final order to your hearts' content, and you're welcome to try to change my mind, though I don't think it's gonna happen.
So with that in mind...
Honorable Mentions: Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians
Dark Horses: Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants
10. New York Mets
Six Man Rotation: Mat Latos, Jonathan Niese, Jake Peavy, Ricky Nolasco, Jeff Karstens, Nathan Eovaldi
Seventh Man: Juan Oramas
As I said above, I’m a fan of this Mets rotation, so much so that I was prepared to include it ahead of the Pirates’ rotation even though the Pirates were, until very recently, ahead in the voting, and I myself had voted for them. Mat Latos is the ace, and the main question mark with him is how he will respond to moving from a pitchers’ paradise to a bandbox. After Latos, the rotation includes a couple of pitchers whose ERAs may not be stunning but whose peripherals, which are well rewarded by this league’s scoring, suggest they could be better. Ricky Nolasco is a perennial underperformer, but he also shows perennial pin-point control, and though the strikeout numbers have decreased since 2009 they should be solid. Like Nolasco, Jon Niese also had an ERA a full run higher than his FIP in 2011. Though he missed the last month of the season, he should be healthy and ready to help the Mets in IP, QS, K, BB/9, and, hopefully, ERA. Another pitcher who will provide excellent BB/9 numbers is Jeff Karstens, and he won’t hurt the Mets in the other categories. If Jake Peavy can stay healthy and Nathan Eovaldi can get a full season of starts, this rotation will be quite good. B- prospect Juan Oramas, who saw time in AA and AAA last year, waits in the wings, and the Mets will be keeping an eye on how he shows in Spring Training.
9. Boston Red Sox
Six Man Rotation: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Phil Hughes, Mark Buehrle, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Junichi Tazawa
Seventh Man: Casey Kelly
Jon Lester’s numbers were down last year, but he’s still a solid ace for a staff of question marks. A healthy Clay Buchholz would make a solid number two, though even at his best his peripherals have been just average. Phil Hughes was better after returning from dead-arm last July, and should be a solid pitcher if he can prevent injuries and keep his spot in the rotation. Mark Buehrle doesn’t strike anybody out, but will provide outstanding BB/9 numbers in a rotation lacking in that department, and could also benefit from his move to a new park and new league. Matsuzaka has been a consistent disappointment, but at 31 still has a chance to turn things around as his recovery from Tommy John surgery progresses. Sixth man Junichi Tazawa looks like a reliever moving forward, but his promising late-season return from his own TJ surgery is encouraging. B prospect Casey Kelly has spent two seasons in AA, and at 22 may be ready for his next challenge if he can earn himself the playing time, so he gets the nod as seventh man.
8. Los Angeles Dodgers
Six Man Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, C.J. Wilson, Rick Porcello, Javier Vazquez, A.J. Burnett, Randy Wells
Seventh Man: Anthony Swarzak
At five years younger and with a higher K/9, a lower ERA, and a similar BB/9 to Justin Verlander in 2011, Kershaw has a good case to be named the top fantasy pitcher for this season; which is exactly where Yahoo ranks him. And with C.J. Wilson behind him, the Dodgers have a formidable duo at the front of their rotation. After that, however, there’s a significant drop off to a collection of merely average pitchers. At 23, Rick Porcello is still an intriguing name, but his inability to strike batters out will likely prevent him from living up to the A- grade he received from Sickels three years ago and justifying his first round pick in the 2007 draft. Randy Wells possesses a similarly low strikeout rate but with less upside. Burnett and Vazquez, however, are high strikeout guys who both routinely suffer from gopheritis, with a change in scenery the prescribed cure – Burnett may get it, and Vazquez will too if he pitches, but that’s a big if. Anthony Swarzak is the seventh man, because the Dodgers’ best pitching prospect, Justin Nicolino, isn’t yet close to the majors.
7. Chicago Cubs
Six Man Rotation: Ubaldo Jimenez, Francisco Liriano, Gavin Floyd, Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Bruce Chen
Seventh Man: Carlos Carrasco
One year ago, the two players at the top of this rotation would have been considered among the best in the game. Jimenez and Liriano were both disappointing in 2011, so now, this rotation’s strength lies in its depth. Jimenez’s ERA should be back in the mid-3s, with solid strikeout numbers but walking a few too many batters. Liriano’s season will entirely depend on his health. The rest of the rotation is full of solid but unsexy names. Most will contribute across the board, but have little in the way of upside. Gavin Floyd is the youngest of the remaining starters in the six-man rotation, and should be just better than average in Ks and BB/9, with a chance to see his ERA drop to match his 3.81 FIP. The other three are in their mid 30s, with Lilly likely to provide the most Ks and Kuroda likely to provide the best BB/9 with ERAs just under 4.00. Chen is unlikely to repeat his 3.77 ERA, so he’s the most likely to be bumped by seventh man Carlos Carrasco or any of the other starters on the depth chart, which includes Rich Harden, Kevin Correia, Livan Hernandez, and Chris Young.
6. Texas Rangers
Six Man Rotation: Matt Cain, James Shields, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Sanchez, Carl Pavano, Wade LeBlanc
Seventh Man: Nestor Molina
How do you build a rotation through free agency? The Rangers did just that this offseason, building a five-man rotation entirely with 2012 free agent purchases. Matt Cain and James Shields serve as dual aces. Both had ERAs under 3.00 last year, though Shields’ FIP was higher. Shields had the higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate in 2012, and pitched more innings, but Cain’s lower FIP was due to his low home run rate; xFIP calls Shields the better pitcher. Chad Billingsley hasn’t lived up to the ace potential of an elite prospect, but should he get his K/9 back over 8 and his BB/9 back under 4, as it was from 2007-2010, he’ll prove himself a great buy for the Rangers. Jonathan Sanchez is always a high strikeout guy who walks far too many batters, but was another signing with the potential to look really good for the Rangers. Carl Pavano will eat innings while walking very few batters, but he won’t be any help in the strikeout department, which should keep his ERA around 4.00. Wade LeBlanc shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than the occasional spot start but gets the sixth spot by default. Nestor Molina will certainly take the spot away from him upon his promotion should he remain a starter. I should say that even though it misses the top five, I'm a big fan of this rotation.
5. Cincinnati Reds
Six Man Rotation: David Price, Josh Beckett, Anibal Sanchez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Travis Wood
Seventh Man: Chad Bettis
In 26-year-old David Price, the Reds have a fourth year player who’s a clearly established ace, a rare commodity. Of pitchers ranked ahead of him on Yahoo, only Clayton Kershaw (fifth year) and Tim Lincecum (sixth year) are cost-controlled; the next highest ranked pitcher in the fourth year or earlier is Stephen Strasburg, who’s nowhere close to as sure a thing for 2012. Behind Price is Josh Beckett, who’s still only 31 years old, followed by Anibal Sanchez (27), Johnny Cueto (25 until tomorrow), Homer Bailey (25), and Travis Wood (25). Other than Beckett (who’s certainly not yet past his prime), this is quite a young rotation. Yet somehow it still doesn’t feel like there’s a lot of upside here. It’s fashionable of late to call Price overrated due to his lucky 2010, but his 2011 was still solid (better than 2010 based on peripherals) and seems to be right around what we should expect from him moving forward. Sanchez’s xFIP has improved drastically over the last three years as his K-rate goes up and BB-rate continues to go down. Cueto, Bailey, and Wood all figure to get more innings in 2011, which will also improve their stock. But Cueto, and Beckett, won’t be able to maintain BABIPs of .249 and .245, respectively, for another year, and Wood continues to look like a back of the rotation starter. Personally, I’m most interested in seeing what Bailey can do healthy and with a little more security in his rotation spot, and I feel he’s someone to watch out for. He has sacrificed velocity for improved control the last couple years, so if he continues to find other ways to rack up the strikeouts he can keep improving. Zack Wheeler is the top pitching prospect in this system, but just 21 and having spent 2011 in high-A he’s still a ways off from contributing, so Chad Bettis earns the seventh-man spot; he too spent the year in high-A, but is a year older than Wheeler.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
Six-Man Rotation: Ricky Romero, Matt Garza, John Danks, Justin Masterson, Colby Lewis, Jair Jurrjens
Seventh Men: Alexi Ogando, Neftali Feliz
The Blue Jays are all about depth this year, with eight guys all with a good shot to get starts this year. While they lack an ace, the top two of Ricky Romero and Matt Garza is still a good duo. Both have concerns though: for Romero, the primary concern lies in his .242 BABIP last year, which helped him pitch to a 2.92 ERA and disguised a drop in strikeout rate and a rise in home runs allowed. Garza, meanwhile, deserved his career year – a pitcher whose strikeout rate, walk rate and homerun rate all seem to vary wildly from one year to the next, Garza saw the planets align and 2011 was a year when all three were right where he needed them to be, getting his FIP under 4 (and under 3) for the first time in his career. With Garza, then, the question is whether all three will be right again in 2012, because a regression in one or more of them could send his ERA back up into the high 3’s at least. Justin Masterson also had a career year in 2011, and looks like a good bet to repeat. John Danks is due for some improvement, and Colby Lewis might be as well if he can keep the ball in the park. Jair Jurrjens, on the other hand, had a FIP a full run higher than his 2.96 ERA, a number which should be close to 4.00 next year instead. That brings us to the Blue Jays’ seventh men, of which they have two: Neftali Feliz is rumored to be moving to the rotation, which would be a bonus for the Blue Jays as they can use him in a RP spot and get some extra SP innings. His K/9 was down and his BB/9 was up last year, but with a move to the rotation anything could happen (though I, for one, am a fan). If he does move though, he might bump Alexi Ogando to the bullpen given his experience there, a move the Blue Jays might not be so happy with. If Ogando stays in the rotation though, the Blue Jays will have to move one of their eight starters to the bench, as he’s currently not eligible for a RP spot. The Jays also have a number of prospects that might compete for rotation spots this year, such as Randall Delgado, Dellin Betances, and possibly Matt Harvey.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
Six Man Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, Yovani Gallardo, Joe Saunders, Joe Blanton, Jeanmar Gomez
Seventh Man: Wily Peralta
When much of your competition would gladly give you their ace in exchange for your third starter, you know you’ve got a good staff. No three pitchers on any team in this league come close to the amount of talent that the Brewers have at the front of their rotation with Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, and Yovani Gallardo. A closer look at their numbers reveals that two of these pitchers are a safer bet to repeat their strong 2011s than the third. Felix Hernandez has seen his strikeout rate improve each year since 2007, and in the last three years his walk rate has held steady at around 2.6 per 9 innings. During that time his velocity has dropped and he’s been turning more and more to his changeup and curveball at the expense of his slider. It seems that King Felix is still adapting and growing as a pitcher – not surprising considering his age. Yovani Gallardo, meanwhile, has all but done away with his changeup and turned to his slider in the past few years, the result being a drastically improved BB/9 and only a slightly declining K/9. Both just 25-years-old, these two youngsters show no signs of slowing down, and should be at least as good in 2012 as they were in 2011. On the other hand, Jered Weaver is due for a bit of regression and most likely won’t be putting up an ERA in the low-mid 2’s again anytime soon. His FIP was 3.20 in 2011, and that’s most likely where his ERA will be in 2012 unless he returns to his 2010 strikeout rate of over a batter per inning while keeping everything else the same. Even so, he’s a very good pitcher and a part of by far the best Big Three in this game. The second half of this rotation, meanwhile, is sub-par. Joe Saunders may be coming off a career year, but with a pedestrian strikeout rate his true talent is closer to his 4.78 FIP than his 3.69 ERA. Joe Blanton spent much of 2011 on the DL but I see him as having much more to offer than the other Joe, with the potential to put up a K/9 of around 7 against a BB/9 of around 2 when healthy (similar numbers to Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly, or Gavin Floyd). Jeanmar Gomez might struggle to earn a rotation spot, but top pitching prospect Wily Peralta is ready and could see time in the Bigs in 2012. Tyler Thornburg is likely a bit further away from making his debut.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Six-Man Rotation: Zack Greinke, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, Jordan Zimmermann, Brandon Morrow, James McDonald
Seventh Men: Cory Luebke, Felipe Paulino
Like their lineup, the Rays’ rotation has the most upside of any in the game right now, but with upside comes risk. Ace Zack Greinke joins the team through free agency coming off a year in which he struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings. One of only two pitchers to top that mark in 2011, his 10.54 strikeouts per 9 innings led the league. The other pitcher was Brandon Morrow, who tallied 10.19 K/9 and also joined the Rays this winter. Greinke won the Cy Young Award in 2009, with one of the best years by a pitcher in recent memory. The positive difference between his ERAs and FIPs since then, and the outstanding K/9 coupled with consistently good BB/9, suggest that the 28-year-old Greinke could be in line for another dominant year soon, if healthy. Morrow too has a history of bad luck (4.72 ERA in 2011 against a 3.64 FIP) and injuries, but also adds a history of poor control, though that has improved of late. Perhaps the more likely to be the Rays’ second best pitcher behind Greinke, if not their best right away, is prospect Matt Moore, the top pitching prospect in baseball who put up a K/9 of 12.32, a BB/9 of 2.68, and an ERA of 1.97 across three levels last year (102.1 innings in AA, 52.2 innings in AAA, 9.1 innings in the Majors). If he gets the innings, Moore could give the Rays’ rotation a chance to claim two straight AL Rookie of the Year awards, as Jeremy Hellickson won it last year. Hellickson was lucky that his disappointing strikeout rate didn’t hurt his ERA (it surely hurt his FIP), but there are signs that Hellickson’s K/9 could come up from the 5.57 that he put up last year. Jordan Zimmermann is another youngster who, if healthy, has enormous potential. He walks very few batters, but also struck out fewer than expected in 2011. James McDonald is the sixth man for now, although promising youngster Mike Minor could take that spot during Spring Training against heavy competition. Like their division rivals, the Rays also have two seventh men. Corey Luebke turned some heads last year, taking advantage of and pitching extremely well in a pitchers’ paradise, and his RP eligibility is a bonus for the Rays. Felipe Paulino is also RP eligible and adds his share of strikeouts. James Paxton is the best pitching prospect after Moore, and at 23-years-old and having seen time in AA last year, he could make a contribution soon. Robbie Erlin also reached AA, but is only 21 and is just behind Paxton on the Rays’ top-prospect list.
1. Baltimore Orioles
Six-Man Rotation: Tim Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, Johan Santana, Joel Pineiro
Seventh Man: Wade Miley
The five-man rotation the Orioles could put forth is full of names that every baseball fan will recognize. Sometime in the last few years, each of the five was an ace pitcher, at or near the very top of the list of fantasy starters. Even Joel Pineiro had a nice year in 2009. All of them have since fallen, to different extents, and only one of these pitchers can still be considered a dominant fantasy ace. Tim Lincecum has not lived up to expecations in 2010 and 2011. He has been an excellent pitcher, but has not lived up to the hype that surrounded him during his two Cy Young winning years of 2008 and 2009. He’s still striking out over a batter per inning, but that number has dropped each year since 2008, when he had a K/9 of 10.51, to 2011, when it was at 9.12. His BB/9 has climbed since 2009, when it was 2.72, to 3.57 in 2011. And though his ERA was better in 2011 than in 2010, his FIP stayed steady (3.15 and 3.17 the last two years). That a FIP in the low 3’s is disappointing only speaks to the high expectations that most fans have for The Franchise, and though he’ll have to bounce back a bit if he wants to dazzle us the way he did during those first two full seasons, he’ll still be an ace for many years as long as he’s healthy. A clean bill of health is all Josh Johnson needs to be an ace as well, but having only topped 100 innings three times including his first full season back in 2006, this is easier said than done. If it happens though, a healthy Johnson is fully capable of putting up a K/9 of at least 8, a BB/9 in the mid 2’s, a miniscule homerun rate, and an ERA near or under 3.00 – as such, Johnson is probably the single most important variable in the Orioles’ hopes for 2012. Chris Carpenter, meanwhile, has lost his status as a top fantasy pitcher not because of disappointment (he’s been dominant and healthy since an injury cost him most of the 2007 and 2008 seasons), but because, at 36, his age scares some owners away. Still, his 2011 was very solid despite some bad luck (.312), and the Orioles are hoping for a few more similar years before his age catches up with him. Roy Oswalt is no longer the pitcher who won 20 games for the Astros in 2004 and 2005, but since then he’s mixed some very good years (’06, ’07, ’10) with some less impressive but still solid ones. Last year was one of those less impressive years – although he pitched well with his characteristically low walk-rate, he missed time due to tornado-related family reasons and injury, failing to start 30 games for the first time since 2003. Once fantasy owners know what park he’ll be pitching in for half his games in 2012, his stock should improve, though not to past levels. Johan Santana is the pitcher who has fallen furthest. The two time Cy Young winner’s strikeout rate dropped in his first year with the Mets, and has continued to fall since, and in 2011 he failed to pitch a single game due to a shoulder injury that continues to scare away owners. However, when he does return he will complete a rotation that, even when not quite at 100%, is still the best in this game, and if it does reach 100% for any stretch of time (hopefully a stretch from April through September, if the Orioles have their way), will easily trump all others due to superior ace potential in Lincecum and Johnson to all but two or three of the other 30 teams and superior secondary SPs in Carpenter, Oswalt, Santana, and Pineiro to those few whose aces might challenge the Orioles’ pair. As the sixth man in this rotation, Pineiro adds the potential for an elite BB/9 and hopefully an acceptable ERA, though his contributions to the strikeout category will barely be noticed. The seventh man is Wade Miley, who made seven Big League starts last year, and Dan Klein could also see time with the Big Club.
Ready, set, debate!
(*Not really, I took a personal day today because I had to go to the DMV to get a new Drivers' License. Not fun.)
Just like in the lineups poll, over two-thirds of the league voted in the poll for the ten best rotations, and over two-thirds of the league received at least two votes. In the lineup poll, however, the team with the tenth most votes had two more votes than the team with the eleventh most, 8 against 6, and even though I didn't 100% agree with the top ten, I chose the ten teams that had received the most votes to best represent the league's overall opinion. In this poll, however, there was a tie between the Mets and the Pirates for tenth. When I started the writeup, the Pirates were ahead of the Mets by one vote. Interestingly, I preferred the Mets' rotation but had voted for both the Mets and the Pirates (one of the 9 teams ahead of them did not receive my vote). I knew I couldn't include both teams in the writeup without failing to include a team that a large number of other people felt deserved to be there. So, I made a decision, and decided to include the Mets over the Pirates, even though the Pirates had more votes at the time and I liked their rotation as well.
However, as I said, at the last minute the Mets received another vote, putting them into a tenth place tie with the Pirates. So why am I telling you all this? Well, I want to illustrate the point that, while I do use the polls as an extremely helpful guide in making these lists, I do not follow them entirely. I try to balance the opinion of the majority with my own opinion, because, as the writer, I need to believe in what I write. As such, these should be read with that anecdote as a disclaimer - the order of the teams in this list might surprise you, but I feel like it is the order that provides the best balance between my opinion and the general opinion of the league. I feel that the Pirates and Mets both deserve a spot in the top ten, but I also feel that the other nine teams deserve one as well; even though I didn't vote for one of those teams, the fact that many people did means it has earned its place here. But this is a top ten, not a top eleven, and there have to be casualties.
I also want to mention that, with the lineups, there was a clear top four, and I was fairly confident in what the order of those top four would be even before creating the poll. With the rotations, however, I saw a clear top five but had no idea what order I would put them in, even after having written up paragraphs for teams 6-10. But, I thought about it more, received some input from other GMs, and finally wrote the paragraphs for those five teams. I settled on an order, and finally posted this. But then right away I changed my mind and went back and flipped two teams, and also flipped two teams in the 6-10 range. Some of you who were on right when I posted this might have even noticed the change, but if not, I'm not going to tell you what it was, so don't ask. All I will say is that it did not involve my own team. Regardless, it should be clear that I think all five of those teams have very strong rotations and are quite close to each other in talent, with near-microscopic differences. That said, you should all still feel free to scrutinize and debate about the final order to your hearts' content, and you're welcome to try to change my mind, though I don't think it's gonna happen.
So with that in mind...
Honorable Mentions: Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians
Dark Horses: Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants
10. New York Mets
Six Man Rotation: Mat Latos, Jonathan Niese, Jake Peavy, Ricky Nolasco, Jeff Karstens, Nathan Eovaldi
Seventh Man: Juan Oramas
As I said above, I’m a fan of this Mets rotation, so much so that I was prepared to include it ahead of the Pirates’ rotation even though the Pirates were, until very recently, ahead in the voting, and I myself had voted for them. Mat Latos is the ace, and the main question mark with him is how he will respond to moving from a pitchers’ paradise to a bandbox. After Latos, the rotation includes a couple of pitchers whose ERAs may not be stunning but whose peripherals, which are well rewarded by this league’s scoring, suggest they could be better. Ricky Nolasco is a perennial underperformer, but he also shows perennial pin-point control, and though the strikeout numbers have decreased since 2009 they should be solid. Like Nolasco, Jon Niese also had an ERA a full run higher than his FIP in 2011. Though he missed the last month of the season, he should be healthy and ready to help the Mets in IP, QS, K, BB/9, and, hopefully, ERA. Another pitcher who will provide excellent BB/9 numbers is Jeff Karstens, and he won’t hurt the Mets in the other categories. If Jake Peavy can stay healthy and Nathan Eovaldi can get a full season of starts, this rotation will be quite good. B- prospect Juan Oramas, who saw time in AA and AAA last year, waits in the wings, and the Mets will be keeping an eye on how he shows in Spring Training.
9. Boston Red Sox
Six Man Rotation: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Phil Hughes, Mark Buehrle, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Junichi Tazawa
Seventh Man: Casey Kelly
Jon Lester’s numbers were down last year, but he’s still a solid ace for a staff of question marks. A healthy Clay Buchholz would make a solid number two, though even at his best his peripherals have been just average. Phil Hughes was better after returning from dead-arm last July, and should be a solid pitcher if he can prevent injuries and keep his spot in the rotation. Mark Buehrle doesn’t strike anybody out, but will provide outstanding BB/9 numbers in a rotation lacking in that department, and could also benefit from his move to a new park and new league. Matsuzaka has been a consistent disappointment, but at 31 still has a chance to turn things around as his recovery from Tommy John surgery progresses. Sixth man Junichi Tazawa looks like a reliever moving forward, but his promising late-season return from his own TJ surgery is encouraging. B prospect Casey Kelly has spent two seasons in AA, and at 22 may be ready for his next challenge if he can earn himself the playing time, so he gets the nod as seventh man.
8. Los Angeles Dodgers
Six Man Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, C.J. Wilson, Rick Porcello, Javier Vazquez, A.J. Burnett, Randy Wells
Seventh Man: Anthony Swarzak
At five years younger and with a higher K/9, a lower ERA, and a similar BB/9 to Justin Verlander in 2011, Kershaw has a good case to be named the top fantasy pitcher for this season; which is exactly where Yahoo ranks him. And with C.J. Wilson behind him, the Dodgers have a formidable duo at the front of their rotation. After that, however, there’s a significant drop off to a collection of merely average pitchers. At 23, Rick Porcello is still an intriguing name, but his inability to strike batters out will likely prevent him from living up to the A- grade he received from Sickels three years ago and justifying his first round pick in the 2007 draft. Randy Wells possesses a similarly low strikeout rate but with less upside. Burnett and Vazquez, however, are high strikeout guys who both routinely suffer from gopheritis, with a change in scenery the prescribed cure – Burnett may get it, and Vazquez will too if he pitches, but that’s a big if. Anthony Swarzak is the seventh man, because the Dodgers’ best pitching prospect, Justin Nicolino, isn’t yet close to the majors.
7. Chicago Cubs
Six Man Rotation: Ubaldo Jimenez, Francisco Liriano, Gavin Floyd, Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Bruce Chen
Seventh Man: Carlos Carrasco
One year ago, the two players at the top of this rotation would have been considered among the best in the game. Jimenez and Liriano were both disappointing in 2011, so now, this rotation’s strength lies in its depth. Jimenez’s ERA should be back in the mid-3s, with solid strikeout numbers but walking a few too many batters. Liriano’s season will entirely depend on his health. The rest of the rotation is full of solid but unsexy names. Most will contribute across the board, but have little in the way of upside. Gavin Floyd is the youngest of the remaining starters in the six-man rotation, and should be just better than average in Ks and BB/9, with a chance to see his ERA drop to match his 3.81 FIP. The other three are in their mid 30s, with Lilly likely to provide the most Ks and Kuroda likely to provide the best BB/9 with ERAs just under 4.00. Chen is unlikely to repeat his 3.77 ERA, so he’s the most likely to be bumped by seventh man Carlos Carrasco or any of the other starters on the depth chart, which includes Rich Harden, Kevin Correia, Livan Hernandez, and Chris Young.
6. Texas Rangers
Six Man Rotation: Matt Cain, James Shields, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Sanchez, Carl Pavano, Wade LeBlanc
Seventh Man: Nestor Molina
How do you build a rotation through free agency? The Rangers did just that this offseason, building a five-man rotation entirely with 2012 free agent purchases. Matt Cain and James Shields serve as dual aces. Both had ERAs under 3.00 last year, though Shields’ FIP was higher. Shields had the higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate in 2012, and pitched more innings, but Cain’s lower FIP was due to his low home run rate; xFIP calls Shields the better pitcher. Chad Billingsley hasn’t lived up to the ace potential of an elite prospect, but should he get his K/9 back over 8 and his BB/9 back under 4, as it was from 2007-2010, he’ll prove himself a great buy for the Rangers. Jonathan Sanchez is always a high strikeout guy who walks far too many batters, but was another signing with the potential to look really good for the Rangers. Carl Pavano will eat innings while walking very few batters, but he won’t be any help in the strikeout department, which should keep his ERA around 4.00. Wade LeBlanc shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than the occasional spot start but gets the sixth spot by default. Nestor Molina will certainly take the spot away from him upon his promotion should he remain a starter. I should say that even though it misses the top five, I'm a big fan of this rotation.
5. Cincinnati Reds
Six Man Rotation: David Price, Josh Beckett, Anibal Sanchez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Travis Wood
Seventh Man: Chad Bettis
In 26-year-old David Price, the Reds have a fourth year player who’s a clearly established ace, a rare commodity. Of pitchers ranked ahead of him on Yahoo, only Clayton Kershaw (fifth year) and Tim Lincecum (sixth year) are cost-controlled; the next highest ranked pitcher in the fourth year or earlier is Stephen Strasburg, who’s nowhere close to as sure a thing for 2012. Behind Price is Josh Beckett, who’s still only 31 years old, followed by Anibal Sanchez (27), Johnny Cueto (25 until tomorrow), Homer Bailey (25), and Travis Wood (25). Other than Beckett (who’s certainly not yet past his prime), this is quite a young rotation. Yet somehow it still doesn’t feel like there’s a lot of upside here. It’s fashionable of late to call Price overrated due to his lucky 2010, but his 2011 was still solid (better than 2010 based on peripherals) and seems to be right around what we should expect from him moving forward. Sanchez’s xFIP has improved drastically over the last three years as his K-rate goes up and BB-rate continues to go down. Cueto, Bailey, and Wood all figure to get more innings in 2011, which will also improve their stock. But Cueto, and Beckett, won’t be able to maintain BABIPs of .249 and .245, respectively, for another year, and Wood continues to look like a back of the rotation starter. Personally, I’m most interested in seeing what Bailey can do healthy and with a little more security in his rotation spot, and I feel he’s someone to watch out for. He has sacrificed velocity for improved control the last couple years, so if he continues to find other ways to rack up the strikeouts he can keep improving. Zack Wheeler is the top pitching prospect in this system, but just 21 and having spent 2011 in high-A he’s still a ways off from contributing, so Chad Bettis earns the seventh-man spot; he too spent the year in high-A, but is a year older than Wheeler.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
Six-Man Rotation: Ricky Romero, Matt Garza, John Danks, Justin Masterson, Colby Lewis, Jair Jurrjens
Seventh Men: Alexi Ogando, Neftali Feliz
The Blue Jays are all about depth this year, with eight guys all with a good shot to get starts this year. While they lack an ace, the top two of Ricky Romero and Matt Garza is still a good duo. Both have concerns though: for Romero, the primary concern lies in his .242 BABIP last year, which helped him pitch to a 2.92 ERA and disguised a drop in strikeout rate and a rise in home runs allowed. Garza, meanwhile, deserved his career year – a pitcher whose strikeout rate, walk rate and homerun rate all seem to vary wildly from one year to the next, Garza saw the planets align and 2011 was a year when all three were right where he needed them to be, getting his FIP under 4 (and under 3) for the first time in his career. With Garza, then, the question is whether all three will be right again in 2012, because a regression in one or more of them could send his ERA back up into the high 3’s at least. Justin Masterson also had a career year in 2011, and looks like a good bet to repeat. John Danks is due for some improvement, and Colby Lewis might be as well if he can keep the ball in the park. Jair Jurrjens, on the other hand, had a FIP a full run higher than his 2.96 ERA, a number which should be close to 4.00 next year instead. That brings us to the Blue Jays’ seventh men, of which they have two: Neftali Feliz is rumored to be moving to the rotation, which would be a bonus for the Blue Jays as they can use him in a RP spot and get some extra SP innings. His K/9 was down and his BB/9 was up last year, but with a move to the rotation anything could happen (though I, for one, am a fan). If he does move though, he might bump Alexi Ogando to the bullpen given his experience there, a move the Blue Jays might not be so happy with. If Ogando stays in the rotation though, the Blue Jays will have to move one of their eight starters to the bench, as he’s currently not eligible for a RP spot. The Jays also have a number of prospects that might compete for rotation spots this year, such as Randall Delgado, Dellin Betances, and possibly Matt Harvey.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
Six Man Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, Yovani Gallardo, Joe Saunders, Joe Blanton, Jeanmar Gomez
Seventh Man: Wily Peralta
When much of your competition would gladly give you their ace in exchange for your third starter, you know you’ve got a good staff. No three pitchers on any team in this league come close to the amount of talent that the Brewers have at the front of their rotation with Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, and Yovani Gallardo. A closer look at their numbers reveals that two of these pitchers are a safer bet to repeat their strong 2011s than the third. Felix Hernandez has seen his strikeout rate improve each year since 2007, and in the last three years his walk rate has held steady at around 2.6 per 9 innings. During that time his velocity has dropped and he’s been turning more and more to his changeup and curveball at the expense of his slider. It seems that King Felix is still adapting and growing as a pitcher – not surprising considering his age. Yovani Gallardo, meanwhile, has all but done away with his changeup and turned to his slider in the past few years, the result being a drastically improved BB/9 and only a slightly declining K/9. Both just 25-years-old, these two youngsters show no signs of slowing down, and should be at least as good in 2012 as they were in 2011. On the other hand, Jered Weaver is due for a bit of regression and most likely won’t be putting up an ERA in the low-mid 2’s again anytime soon. His FIP was 3.20 in 2011, and that’s most likely where his ERA will be in 2012 unless he returns to his 2010 strikeout rate of over a batter per inning while keeping everything else the same. Even so, he’s a very good pitcher and a part of by far the best Big Three in this game. The second half of this rotation, meanwhile, is sub-par. Joe Saunders may be coming off a career year, but with a pedestrian strikeout rate his true talent is closer to his 4.78 FIP than his 3.69 ERA. Joe Blanton spent much of 2011 on the DL but I see him as having much more to offer than the other Joe, with the potential to put up a K/9 of around 7 against a BB/9 of around 2 when healthy (similar numbers to Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly, or Gavin Floyd). Jeanmar Gomez might struggle to earn a rotation spot, but top pitching prospect Wily Peralta is ready and could see time in the Bigs in 2012. Tyler Thornburg is likely a bit further away from making his debut.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Six-Man Rotation: Zack Greinke, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, Jordan Zimmermann, Brandon Morrow, James McDonald
Seventh Men: Cory Luebke, Felipe Paulino
Like their lineup, the Rays’ rotation has the most upside of any in the game right now, but with upside comes risk. Ace Zack Greinke joins the team through free agency coming off a year in which he struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings. One of only two pitchers to top that mark in 2011, his 10.54 strikeouts per 9 innings led the league. The other pitcher was Brandon Morrow, who tallied 10.19 K/9 and also joined the Rays this winter. Greinke won the Cy Young Award in 2009, with one of the best years by a pitcher in recent memory. The positive difference between his ERAs and FIPs since then, and the outstanding K/9 coupled with consistently good BB/9, suggest that the 28-year-old Greinke could be in line for another dominant year soon, if healthy. Morrow too has a history of bad luck (4.72 ERA in 2011 against a 3.64 FIP) and injuries, but also adds a history of poor control, though that has improved of late. Perhaps the more likely to be the Rays’ second best pitcher behind Greinke, if not their best right away, is prospect Matt Moore, the top pitching prospect in baseball who put up a K/9 of 12.32, a BB/9 of 2.68, and an ERA of 1.97 across three levels last year (102.1 innings in AA, 52.2 innings in AAA, 9.1 innings in the Majors). If he gets the innings, Moore could give the Rays’ rotation a chance to claim two straight AL Rookie of the Year awards, as Jeremy Hellickson won it last year. Hellickson was lucky that his disappointing strikeout rate didn’t hurt his ERA (it surely hurt his FIP), but there are signs that Hellickson’s K/9 could come up from the 5.57 that he put up last year. Jordan Zimmermann is another youngster who, if healthy, has enormous potential. He walks very few batters, but also struck out fewer than expected in 2011. James McDonald is the sixth man for now, although promising youngster Mike Minor could take that spot during Spring Training against heavy competition. Like their division rivals, the Rays also have two seventh men. Corey Luebke turned some heads last year, taking advantage of and pitching extremely well in a pitchers’ paradise, and his RP eligibility is a bonus for the Rays. Felipe Paulino is also RP eligible and adds his share of strikeouts. James Paxton is the best pitching prospect after Moore, and at 23-years-old and having seen time in AA last year, he could make a contribution soon. Robbie Erlin also reached AA, but is only 21 and is just behind Paxton on the Rays’ top-prospect list.
1. Baltimore Orioles
Six-Man Rotation: Tim Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, Johan Santana, Joel Pineiro
Seventh Man: Wade Miley
The five-man rotation the Orioles could put forth is full of names that every baseball fan will recognize. Sometime in the last few years, each of the five was an ace pitcher, at or near the very top of the list of fantasy starters. Even Joel Pineiro had a nice year in 2009. All of them have since fallen, to different extents, and only one of these pitchers can still be considered a dominant fantasy ace. Tim Lincecum has not lived up to expecations in 2010 and 2011. He has been an excellent pitcher, but has not lived up to the hype that surrounded him during his two Cy Young winning years of 2008 and 2009. He’s still striking out over a batter per inning, but that number has dropped each year since 2008, when he had a K/9 of 10.51, to 2011, when it was at 9.12. His BB/9 has climbed since 2009, when it was 2.72, to 3.57 in 2011. And though his ERA was better in 2011 than in 2010, his FIP stayed steady (3.15 and 3.17 the last two years). That a FIP in the low 3’s is disappointing only speaks to the high expectations that most fans have for The Franchise, and though he’ll have to bounce back a bit if he wants to dazzle us the way he did during those first two full seasons, he’ll still be an ace for many years as long as he’s healthy. A clean bill of health is all Josh Johnson needs to be an ace as well, but having only topped 100 innings three times including his first full season back in 2006, this is easier said than done. If it happens though, a healthy Johnson is fully capable of putting up a K/9 of at least 8, a BB/9 in the mid 2’s, a miniscule homerun rate, and an ERA near or under 3.00 – as such, Johnson is probably the single most important variable in the Orioles’ hopes for 2012. Chris Carpenter, meanwhile, has lost his status as a top fantasy pitcher not because of disappointment (he’s been dominant and healthy since an injury cost him most of the 2007 and 2008 seasons), but because, at 36, his age scares some owners away. Still, his 2011 was very solid despite some bad luck (.312), and the Orioles are hoping for a few more similar years before his age catches up with him. Roy Oswalt is no longer the pitcher who won 20 games for the Astros in 2004 and 2005, but since then he’s mixed some very good years (’06, ’07, ’10) with some less impressive but still solid ones. Last year was one of those less impressive years – although he pitched well with his characteristically low walk-rate, he missed time due to tornado-related family reasons and injury, failing to start 30 games for the first time since 2003. Once fantasy owners know what park he’ll be pitching in for half his games in 2012, his stock should improve, though not to past levels. Johan Santana is the pitcher who has fallen furthest. The two time Cy Young winner’s strikeout rate dropped in his first year with the Mets, and has continued to fall since, and in 2011 he failed to pitch a single game due to a shoulder injury that continues to scare away owners. However, when he does return he will complete a rotation that, even when not quite at 100%, is still the best in this game, and if it does reach 100% for any stretch of time (hopefully a stretch from April through September, if the Orioles have their way), will easily trump all others due to superior ace potential in Lincecum and Johnson to all but two or three of the other 30 teams and superior secondary SPs in Carpenter, Oswalt, Santana, and Pineiro to those few whose aces might challenge the Orioles’ pair. As the sixth man in this rotation, Pineiro adds the potential for an elite BB/9 and hopefully an acceptable ERA, though his contributions to the strikeout category will barely be noticed. The seventh man is Wade Miley, who made seven Big League starts last year, and Dan Klein could also see time with the Big Club.
Ready, set, debate!
