2015 Jays vs Rays: Commissioner Smackdown

[Brian (Blue Jays GM)]

I decided to take on a fun project. It's been mentioned to me by several GMs that Ben and my teams seem to be very close this season, so over the next couple days I'm going to take a stab at using recent performance in our stat categories to evaluate just how close (or perhaps not so close) we really are. I'll go position by position, give you a rundown of the numbers, and then my opinion of which team has the advantage for 2015. Hope you guys enjoy!

[Brian (Blue Jays GM)]

Part 1: The Hitters

The following is a position by position comparison of aggregated stats from the last 3 seasons to determine how the Jays and Rays match up for 2015.

Catcher

Blue Jays projected starter: Jonathan Lucroy
Rays projected starter: Salvador Perez

The Numbers
PA: Last 3 seasons Lucroy has a combined 1581 PA and Perez has 1363. Advantage Lucroy
AVG: Last 3 seasons Lucroy has averaged ~.300 while Perez has averaged ~.280. Advantage Lucroy
HR: Last 3 seasons Lucroy has a combined 43 HR and Perez has 41. Slight Advantage Lucroy
SB: Last 3 seasons Lucroy has a combined 17 SB and Perez has 1. Advantage Lucroy
BB: Last 3 seasons Lucroy has a combined 133 BB and Perez has 55. Advantage Lucroy
XBH: Last 3 seasons Lucroy has a combined 150 XBH and Perez has 115. Advantage Lucroy

Advantage: Lucroy

Summary: Lucroy has outperformed Perez in all 6 hitting categories (HR by a negligible margin) over the last 3 seasons and there's no reason to think that won't continue. The backup for Toronto is Brian McCann, another top 10 option at the position, while Tampa's backup is Stephen Vogt. Barring injuries to both Lucroy and McCann, the advantage here is clearly in the Jays' favor.

First Base

Blue Jays projected starter: Paul Goldschmidt
Rays projected starter: Freddie Freeman

The Numbers
PA: Last 3 seasons Goldschmidt has a combined 1776 PA and Freeman has 1957. Advantage Freeman
AVG: Last 3 seasons Goldschmidt has averaged ~.295 while Freeman has averaged ~.290. Slight Advantage Goldschmidt
HR: Last 3 seasons Goldschmidt has a combined 75 HR and Freeman has 64. Advantage Goldschmidt
SB: Last 3 seasons Goldschmidt has a combined 42 SB and Freeman has 4. Advantage Goldschmidt
BB: Last 3 seasons Goldschmidt has a combined 223 BB and Freeman has 220. Slight Advantage Goldschmidt
XBH: Last 3 seasons Goldschmidt has a combined 198 XBH and Perez has 175. Advantage Goldschmidt

Advantage: Goldschmidt

Summary: Goldschmidt has outperformed Freeman in 5 of 6 hitting categories (AVG and BB by a negligible margin) over the last 3 seasons, and that's with him missing 50 games last season to a broken hand (which would give him a strong advantage in BB and would make PA a lot closer if not an advantage for Goldy). The backup for Toronto is Brian McCann, while Tampa's backup is Anthony Rizzo, a top 10 option at the position. A healthy Goldschmidt gives the Jays the advantage, but any injury to him and the advantage flips to the Rays by a substantial margin.

Second Base

Blue Jays projected starter: Chase Utley
Rays projected starter: Brian Dozier

The Numbers
PA: Last 3 seasons Utley has a combined 1557 PA and Dozier has 1670. Advantage Dozier
AVG: Last 3 seasons Utley has averaged ~.270 while Dozier has averaged ~.240. Advantage Utley
HR: Last 3 seasons Utley has a combined 40 HR and Dozier has 47. Advantage Dozier
SB: Last 3 seasons Utley has a combined 29 SB and Dozier has 44. Advantage Dozier
BB: Last 3 seasons Utley has a combined 141 BB and Dozier has 156. Advantage Dozier
XBH: Last 3 seasons Utley has a combined 130 XBH and Dozier has 130. EVEN

Advantage: Dozier

Summary: Dozier has outperformed Utley in 4 of 6 hitting categories over the last 3 seasons, and that's with him only playing 84 games his rookie season. With Dozier on the rise and Utley on the decline, the gap widens for this season. But here's the wild card...the backups for Toronto are Javier Baez and Wilmer Flores, while Tampa's backup is Rob Refsnyder. A breakout from any of these players could shift the advantage by a wide margin in either team's favor. For now, the advantage belongs to the Rays.

Shortstop

Blue Jays projected starter: Jimmy Rollins
Rays projected starter: Andrelton Simmons

The Numbers
PA: Last 3 seasons Rollins has a combined 1974 PA and Simmons has 1516. Advantage Rollins
AVG: Last 3 seasons Rollins has averaged ~.248 while Simmons has averaged ~.260. Advantage Simmons
HR: Last 3 seasons Rollins has a combined 46 HR and Simmons has 27. Advantage Rollins
SB: Last 3 seasons Rollins has a combined 80 SB and Simmons has 11. Advantage Rollins
BB: Last 3 seasons Rollins has a combined 185 BB and Simmons has 84. Advantage Rollins
XBH: Last 3 seasons Rollins has a combined 148 XBH and Simmons has 92. Advantage Rollins

Advantage: Rollins

Summary: Rollins has outperformed Simmons in 5 of 6 hitting categories over the last 3 seasons, although Simmons only played 49 games his rookie season. Again the younger players are a wild card, as the backups for Toronto are Javier Baez and Wilmer Flores, while Tampa's backup is defensive specialist Zack Cozart. The season ending surgery for Jurickson Profar certainly is a big hit to the Rays at SS this season. With the better starter and the potential for better production out of the backups, the Jays have a clear advantage.

Third Base

Blue Jays projected starter: Josh Donaldson
Rays projected starter: Evan Longoria

The Numbers
PA: Last 3 seasons Donaldson has a combined 1657 PA and Longoria has 1705. Advantage Longoria
AVG: Last 3 seasons Donaldson has averaged ~.270 while Longoria has averaged ~.265. Slight Advantage Donaldson
HR: Last 3 seasons Donaldson has a combined 62 HR and Longoria has 71. Advantage Longoria
SB: Last 3 seasons Donaldson has a combined 17 SB and Longoria has 8. Advantage Donaldson
BB: Last 3 seasons Donaldson has a combined 166 BB and Longoria has 160. Slight Advantage Donaldson
XBH: Last 3 seasons Donaldson has a combined 151 XBH and Longoria has 154. Slight Advantage Longoria

Advantage: Longoria

Summary: Oh man is this one close. They split the 6 hitting categories over the last 3 seasons, but Longoria has strong advantages in 2 categories while Donaldson only has a strong advantage in 1 (SB, both of their worst category) and the other 3 are extremely close. The backup for Toronto is Adrian Beltre, who may actually be better than both Donaldson and Longoria (more on him in a bit), while Tampa does not appear to have a backup. An injury to Longoria would be brutal for the Rays, but for now he gives them the upper hand.

Note: The rankings for outfielder #1/2/3 are based on yahoo's final rankings for 2014

Outfielder #1

Blue Jays projected starter: Melky Cabrera
Rays projected starter: Christian Yelich

The Numbers
PA: Last 3 seasons Cabrera has a combined 1494 PA and Yelich has 933. Advantage Yelich (Cabrera 4.39 PA/G, Yelich 4.52)
AVG: Last 3 seasons Cabrera has averaged ~.315 while Yelich has averaged ~.285. Advantage Cabrera
HR: Last 3 seasons Cabrera has a combined 30 HR and Yelich has 13. Advantage Cabrera (Cabrera .088 HR/G, Yelich .063)
SB: Last 3 seasons Cabrera has a combined 21 SB and Yelich has 31. Advantage Yelich
BB: Last 3 seasons Cabrera has a combined 102 BB and Yelich has 101. Advantage Yelich
XBH: Last 3 seasons Cabrera has a combined 120 XBH and Yelich has 62. Advantage Cabrera (Cabrera .35 XBH/G, Yelich .30)

Advantage: Yelich

Summary: Had to evaluate this with rate stats as Yelich has only played 1 full season and 1 partial (62 games). They split the 6 hitting categories, but Yelich is younger and still improving, his power is only slightly behind Cabrera, and Cabrera's AVG was inflated by a ridiculous .346 performance in 2012. I'm giving Yelich the advantage in 2015.

Outfielder #2

Blue Jays projected starter: Alex Gordon
Rays projected starter: Ryan Braun

The Numbers
PA: Last 3 seasons Gordon has a combined 2064 PA and Braun has 1510. Advantage Gordon
AVG: Last 3 seasons Gordon has averaged ~.275 while Braun has averaged ~.295. Advantage Braun
HR: Last 3 seasons Gordon has a combined 53 HR and Braun has 69. Advantage Braun
SB: Last 3 seasons Gordon has a combined 33 SB and Braun has 45. Advantage Braun
BB: Last 3 seasons Gordon has a combined 190 BB and Braun has 131. Advantage Gordon
XBH: Last 3 seasons Gordon has a combined 177 XBH and Braun has 160. Advantage Gordon

Advantage: Gordon

Summary: This one's also close as they split the 6 hitting categories, but Braun's numbers are inflated by a ridiculous 41hr, 30 SB, .319 AVG season in 2012 that he hasn't come close to matching the last 2 years. Braun has had health, drug, and performance related concerns that have caused major fluctuations in his stats while Gordon has been consistently solid and has huge advantages in PA and BB. He was the higher rated player at the end of 2014 and I'm taking Gordon to be higher rated again in 2015.

Outfielder #3

Blue Jays projected starter: Brett Gardner
Rays projected starter: Bryce Harper

The Numbers
PA: Last 3 seasons Gardner has a combined 1833 PA and Harper has 1489. Advantage Gardner
AVG: Last 3 seasons Gardner has averaged ~.263 while Harper has averaged ~.273. Advantage Harper
HR: Last 3 seasons Gardner has a combined 32 HR and Harper has 55. Advantage Harper
SB: Last 3 seasons Gardner has a combined 94 SB and Harper has 31. Advantage Gardner
BB: Last 3 seasons Gardner has a combined 168 BB and Harper has 155. Advantage Harper
XBH: Last 3 seasons Gardner has a combined 135 XBH and Harper has 129. Advantage Harper

Advantage: Harper

Summary: This one comes down to Harper's health as I gave him advantages in 2 categories that he was behind in (based on per game rates it seemed Harper would've had the advantage), thus giving him 4 of 6 hitting categories. If healthy, Harper is the superior player, but that's a big if. Backups could play a big role as Toronto has Wil Myers and Kevin Kiermaier, while Tampa has Desmond Jennings and Steven Vogt. The emergence of Myers could swing this to the Jays, but with the vast potential of Harper the advantage has to go to the Rays.

Designated Hitter

Blue Jays projected starter: Adrian Beltre
Rays projected starter: Anthony Rizzo

The Numbers
PA: Last 3 seasons Beltre has a combined 1958 PA and Rizzo has 1674. Advantage Beltre
AVG: Last 3 seasons Beltre has averaged ~.320 while Rizzo has averaged ~.270. Advantage Beltre
HR: Last 3 seasons Beltre has a combined 85 HR and Rizzo has 70. Advantage Beltre
SB: Last 3 seasons Beltre has a combined 3 SB and Rizzo has 14. Advantage Rizzo
BB: Last 3 seasons Beltre has a combined 143 BB and Rizzo has 176. Advantage Rizzo
XBH: Last 3 seasons Beltre has a combined 186 XBH and Rizzo has 156. Advantage Beltre

Advantage: Beltre

Summary: In a matchup of 2 outstanding hitters, the (likely) future hall of famer Beltre takes 4 of 6 categories. He may be entering his age 36 season, but this guy still hits like an elite bat. It's entirely possible that age catches up to Beltre, or Rizzo continues to grow into an even better hitter, but until either of those things happen Beltre is the choice for 2015.

[Ben (Rays GM)]

Awesome analysis Brian! I did some of my own using a slightly different methodology. Rather than look at the past three seasons, which probably favors older, more established players (your team) rather than younger, up-and-coming players (my team), I decided to approach it simply using average draft positions in Yahoo leagues. Since we're only looking at 2015, average draft position gives us a good idea of where the general consensus is of how each player should perform next year. The problem with my methodology is that those draft positions are in leagues that use different stat categories, so it's important to keep that flaw in mind.

I'm not going to be doing as much writing - I'll just run down the lineups and see what round each player is being drafted in, and I'll give my thoughts at the end.

My lineups are slightly different, as I decided to put Beltre at 3B and Donaldson at DH for you, because Beltre is being drafted higher. Similarly, I put Rizzo at 1B for me and Freeman at DH. My OF 1, 2, and 3 are also based on ADP, so differ from yours in order (although oddly enough still come up with identical match-ups)

Position	Blue Jays	Rays
Catcher	Lucroy: 74.5	Perez: 124.8
1B	Goldschmidt: 5.8	Rizzo: 12.2
2B	Utley: 170.1	Dozier: 87.9
3B	Beltre: 21.1	Longoria: 65.4
SS	Rollins: 153.9	Simmons: 221.5
OF1	Gordon: 78.2	Braun: 32.4
OF2	Gardner: 108.4	Harper: 33.7
OF3	Cabrera: 196.8	Yelich: 83.6
DH	Donaldson: 30.2	Freeman: 29.4
Total:	839.0	691.2

So, although the methods differ, the results still support the conclusion that our hitting is quite close. You take four positions, I take four positions, and one (DH) is too close to call. There are some differences in the positional match-ups though - while you gave me the advantage at 3B with Longoria over Donaldson, my analysis gives you a strong advantage (regardless of whether you put Beltre or Donaldson there). Meanwhile, my analysis suggests I have strong advantages at all three outfield positions, not just two of them. For the total score, lower is better, since a lower total score means that on average my players are being drafted earlier than yours. How significant that really is, however, is hard to say.

Verdict: really damn close.

I'll be happy to do another on the pitching side of things after you do yours!