World Series 2023

[Ben (Rays GM)]

The 2023 World Series features the St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays, two teams being helmed by founding GMs from Pro-GM's first season.

For the Cardinals this is their second straight year making the World Series. The Cardinals continue to reap the benefits of a patient start to their Pro-GM tenure. I mentioned last year the Cardinals' slow start in the league, finishing near the bottom of their division in Pro-GM's first five years, but that narrative is simply outdated at this point... Billy has turned his team into perennial contenders, and they are now only the third team in Pro-GM history to make back-to-back World Series. They faced perhaps the most difficult possible road to get here this year, finishing as the third Wild Card and entering the playoffs as the NL's 6th seed. But National League powerhouses in ATL, CIN, and SF (the top three seeds) simply couldn't contend with the Cardinals' elite pitching staff, and St. Louis has showed they are clearly a team built to win big matchups.

The Rays' last World Series appearance came in 2016, and despite making the postseason every year since then the team simply hasn't been able to navigate the playoffs, or unseat their arch-rival Blue Jays. Well with Toronto notably absent from the playoffs for the first time since 2011, the Rays are back in the World Series after finishing the regular season with the AL's best record and a sixteen-week winning streak. Now we get to find out if the league's best offense (TB is 1st in HRs, AVG, and XBH, 2nd in BBs) can do enough to overcome arguably the league's best pitching staff (STL is 1st in ERA and WHIP, 2nd in QS, and 4th in Ks).

Both teams are missing a top player, with Max Scherzer (STL) and Mike Trout (TB) on the shelf. A few other injuries and absences for each team will come into play as well, with the Cardinals forced to turn to Miguel Amaya and Kevin Mewman (hopefully returning midweek from an injury of his own) instead of Gary Sanchez and Mike Moustakas, and the Rays relying on their outfield depth and rookie Jordan Wicks to replace Tyler O'Neill and Julio Urias, respectively.

World Series ties are broken using our own tiebreaker system, which involves looking at what would've happened had the two teams faced off head-to-head each week of the regular season. If the Cardinals and Rays had played each other all 20 weeks, the Rays would have won the majority of those matchups (13-6, with one tie). As such, the Rays hold the tiebreaker for the World Series. In the event of a tie both teams will receive the additional 5% World Series discount in free agency (10% total for playoffs plus World Series) but the Rays would be crowned champions on the tiebreaker. I'm attaching a file showing how this was determined for full transparency since I'm one of the teams involved.

[Ben (Rays GM)]

As Brian noted in Discord, this will be a one-week matchup encompassing Week 24 (September 18-24).
Week 25 (September 25-October 1) will not be a part of the 2023 Pro-GM season or World Series in any way.

[Ben (Rays GM)]

Wednesday morning update:

	PA	HR	BB	SB	AVG	XBH	IP	K	ERA	WHIP	QS	SV	TOTAL
STL	53	2	5	1	.283	4	7.2	8	1.17	0.913	1	1	5
TB	63	4	6	2	.228	6	12	12	6.75	1.750	0	0	7

As advertised, STL is leading the pitching categories and TB is leading the hitting. Perhaps this matchup will come down to which team can steal more categories from the other team's area of specialty - can STL hold AVG or flip any of the other hitting categories from TB? Can TB win some of the pitching counting stats with quantity over quality? It's early still, anything could happen!

[Ben (Rays GM)]

Friday morning update:

	PA	HR	BB	SB	AVG	XBH	IP	K	ERA	WHIP	QS	SV	TOTAL
STL	92	3	11	3	.308	9	20.2	28	1.74	1.016	3	1	6
TB	122	4	11	3	.225	12	24.1	27	4.81	1.562	1	0	4

Still anybody's series, but a couple strong days for the Cardinals have Billy ahead 6-4 (or 7-5 the way Fantrax figures the tied stats) heading into the weekend. The pitchers scheduled to pitch - Gilbert, Wicks, Sears for the Rays, Gray, Woodruff, Quintana, and Wheeler for the Cardinals - seem to favor St. Louis locking down most of those categories. The Rays' best hope to steal a pitching stat or two appear to be IP and SV, while the Cardinals are keeping up the pressure on multiple hitting stats and running away with batting average. The focus will likely be on the offensive categories as this matchup wraps up, but Tampa Bay has little margin for error there. In terms of picking a favorite it feels like the momentum has started to swing Billy's way.

[Ben (Rays GM)]

Final day update:

	PA	HR	BB	SB	AVG	XBH	IP	K	ERA	WHIP	QS	SV	TOTAL
STL	144	3	14	5	.291	13	50.1	64	3.58	1.172	5	2	8
TB	187	8	21	3	.220	18	31	29	5.23	1.742	1	0	4

Heading into Sunday this series is clearly Billy's to lose. The Cardinals hold a commanding lead in all of the pitching stats along with AVG and SBs, and the Rays need to find a way to flip two categories, none of which are close.

The Rays do have an advantage in probable pitchers: J.P. Sears (vs DET) and Jordan Wicks (vs COL) are pitching on schedule, and Zac Gallen (@nyy) is now expected to start as well. The Cardinals' only pitching will come from their bullpen. Is that enough for Tampa Bay to overcome a 19.1 inning deficit and a significant gap in ERA? All three would have to pitch very well for that to happen, but it's not impossible, especially if any of St. Louis's relievers stumble. Speaking of relievers, while the Rays do have two closers who could potentially tie SVs, it would take a rare third from Jason Foley on top of those to actually win the category. And a tie only matters if the Rays can tie another category as well (and win a third).

Meanwhile, the Rays are also hoping for a few big days at the plate to pressure AVG, or on the basepaths to pressure SBs, while maintaining their other leads. This seems like a tall order as well: a massive day where the lineup hits something like 18-for-30 would still only put Tampa Bay at .278, so they'd need a rough day from the Cardinals' bats in addition to that. 3 SBs in a day isn't impossible either, but for a team averaging 4 per week it seems unlikely.

All this points to St. Louis as heavy favorites to win the World Series. The fact that Tampa holds the tiebreaker means it's not quite over yet, but flipping two categories (or flipping one and tying two) is a lot to ask, and we may know quickly this afternoon once a few games get going whether it's even possible anymore.

[Ben (Rays GM)]

The St. Louis Cardinals are the 2023 Pro-GM World Series Champions!

	PA	HR	BB	SB	AVG	XBH	IP	K	ERA	WHIP	QS	SV	TOTAL
STL	173	4	15	5	.286	15	50.1	64	3.58	1.172	5	2	8
TB	224	9	23	3	.223	20	48.2	48	4.25	1.500	1	0	4

The final day was at least a little more exciting than it might have been, with the Rays' three SPs nearly able to catch up in IP while shaving a run off the overall team ERA, but it just wasn't enough to overcome the Cardinals' elite pitching and strong overall performance throughout the week.

The Cardinals' miracle playoffs end in triumph, in what has to be one of the most incredible World Series victories in league history. Coming into the playoffs as the NL's 6th seed and on nobody's radar as the favorite the Cardinals now stand alone as champions!

While the Cardinals' win may have looked unlikely, it was in no way undeserved. Take a look at the teams that they defeated during their tear through the playoffs:

Atlanta Braves (3 seed), 15-2-3
Cincinnati Reds (1 seed), 17-1-2
San Francisco Giants (2 seed), 16-3-1
Tampa Bay Rays (1 seed), 18-2-0

A 3-seed, a 2-seed, and two 1-seeds is literally the most difficult combination of opponents a team can encounter in the playoffs. To even have had the opportunity to play this combination of seeds is highly unlikely - it can only be accomplished by a 6-seed (in order to get the first-round matchup against the 3-seed), and even then can only happen if the top seeds from both leagues cooperate and don't get knocked out themselves. Often when an underdog team goes deep in the playoffs they can credit an assist from another team for slaying one or two of the giants and making their path easier. Not so for the Cardinals - they had to play the giant-killer role themselves week after week. These four teams had the four best records out of the 30 teams in the league (it really was the NL's year this year, with three of the top four records coming from the Senior Circuit). To be the best the Cardinals had to beat the best, and they did so convincingly.

So how did they do it? Pitching, mostly. Over the course of four weeks the Cardinals won 20 pitching categories, lost 3, and tied 1. On the offensive side they won 11, lost 12, and tied 1. When you can completely dominate one side of the game while holding your own (against top competition, remember) in the other, that's a recipe for success. Whether Billy designed his team with this strategy in mind or if he simply put forth the best team he could build and this was the result, it worked. They say pitching wins championships, and it certainly did here.

So why wasn't this success reflected in the regular season standings? How did a team so clearly capable of beating absolutely anybody somehow lose 6 games and enter the playoffs as the 6th seed, tied with two others for the league's 10th-best record? Rather than dive into every loss and figure out which ones were just bad luck and timing (more than a few, to be sure!), I'll just say that the statistics tell an entirely different story than the record. Sorting by Fantrax's Rotisserie Points the Cardinals rise up to 4th overall (behind only CIN, TB, and BAL) and 1st in pitching (ahead of CIN by a point and a half). And those cumulative statistics include rough first halves from many key players, with Scherzer and Wheeler putting up first-half ERAs over 4.00, Turner and Mountcastle dealing with prolonged slumps, and Woodruff and Alvarez missing significant time. The stats suggest to me that the 12-6-2 record is simply not reflective of the actual quality of this top-tier squad. Don't think of these Cardinals as a 6th seed that got hot and overperformed when it counted - this is a championship-caliber team that was able to push through some tough spells when it mattered least in order to fulfill their potential when it mattered most.

That 12-6-2 record created a hidden monster, and the position as 6th seed gave Billy the most difficult road to a championship imaginable, and he conquered it. You love a Cinderella story, but you also want a deserving champion... and in the 2023 Pro-GM Champion St. Louis Cardinals we got both.

Speaking now as the GM of the defeated Rays, as much as I would have loved to play spoiler to this miracle run, I'm also thrilled to have been part of it. Sure, the Rays pennant flying on the forum banner isn't as large and doesn't have as much text as I would've liked, but I'm proud to see it on the same pole as that Cardinals flag. I hope when people look up and see "2023" in Cardinal red they remember this playoff run as one for the Pro-GM history books.

Congratulations Billy on your victory and on a truly historic accomplishment!

Key Performers

Jeff McNeil (STL): 30 PA, 11/28 (.393), 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 SB, 4 XBH
Ozzie Albies (STL): 34 PA, 12/31 (.387), 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 SB, 5 XBH *World Series MVP*

Corey Seager (TB): 26 PA, 6/24 (.250), 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 XBH
Cedric Mullins (TB): 29 PA, 4/26 (.154), 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 SB, 2 XBH

Zack Wheeler (STL): 13 IP, 11 K, 2.77 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 2 QS
Michael King (STL): 7 IP, 13 K, 1.29 ERA, 0.714 WHIP, 1 QS

Zac Gallen (TB): 11 IP, 14 K, 3.27 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 1 QS
Kyle Bradish (TB): 6 IP, 9 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 1 QS