Dave Cameron (Fangraphs) 2012 Trade Value

[Ben (Rays GM)]

Every year, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs ranks the top 50 players in terms of trade value, which is always one of my favorite pieces of the season. Here's how he explains it:

If every player in baseball was made available for trade, who would generate the most in return for their current club? Since it only takes two clubs to start a bidding war, we’re not trying to measure who has the most value to all 30 clubs, but rather who which player has so much value that they’d command a larger return in trade from one team than any other player. Some of the players on this list will be guys that many franchises can’t afford, but they still have significant trade value to high revenue clubs. Others are not quite as strong of performers on the field, but they’ve signed contracts that are extremely team friendly and would be franchise building blocks for lower revenue clubs. I’ve tried to balance out the value of performance and cost over the number of years that a team would control a player’s rights in order to determine which players have the most value as we head towards the 2012 trade deadline.

I think you can also think of it as: if all of the players were to be thrown into a pool right now today and teams could draft any player they wanted at their current contract, what would an average draft board look like?

With the final installment posted today, I'm curious what people think about the list. Who's too high or too low? Who's missing?

50-46
45-41
40-36
35-31
30-26
25-21
20-16
15-11
10-6
5-1

50. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas – Signed through 2014 for $12 million
49. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee – Signed through 2015 for $35 million
48. Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco – Signed through 2017 for $128 million
47. Alcides Escobar, SS, Kansas City – Signed through 2017 for $21 million
46. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York – Signed through 2013 for $22 million
45. Ben Zobrist, 2B, Tampa Bay – Signed through 2015 for $22 million
44. Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis – Signed through 2017 for $94 million
43. Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore – Signed through 2018 for $87 million
42. Yu Darvish, SP, Texas – Signed through 2017 for $53 million
41. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago – Signed through 2016 (arbitration 2013-16)
40. Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati – Signed through 2015 for $30 million
39. Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City – Signed through 2015 for $35 million
38. Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore – Signed through 2015 (arbitration 2013-15)
37. Wil Myers, OF, Kansas City – Six-plus years of team control
36. Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati – Signed through 2017 for $58 million
35. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, San Francisco – Signed through 2014 for $15 million
34. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston – Signed Through 2015 for $36 million
33. Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit – Under Team Control Through 2015
32. Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF, Anaheim – Under Team Control through 2016
31. Chris Sale, SP, Chicago – Under Team Control through 2016
30. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas – Signed through 2017 for $76 million
29. Dylan Bundy, SP, Baltimore – Under Team Control for 6+ Years
28. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas – Under Team Control for 6+ Years
27. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado – Signed through 2017 for $74 million
26. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati – Signed through 2023 for $246 million
25. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland – Under Team Control through 2017
24. Matt Moore, SP, Tampa Bay – Signed through 2019 for $36 million
23. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona – Signed through 2015 for $42 million
22. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City – Under Team Control through 2017
21. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington – Signed through 2018 for $65 million
20. David Price, SP, Tampa Bay – Under Team Control through 2015
19. Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco – Signed through 2019 for $58 million
18. Miguel Cabrera, 3B/1B, Detroit – Signed through 2015 for $75 million
17. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle – Signed through 2014 for $49 million
16. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles – Under Team Control through 2015
15. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto – Under Team Control through 2017
14. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit – Signed through 2014 for $50 million
13. Jered Weaver, SP, Anaheim – Signed through 2016 for $77 million
12. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco – Under Team Control through 2016
11. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado – Signed through 2020 for $148 million
10. Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto – Signed through 2015 for $63 million
9. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta – Under Team Control through 2015
8. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington – Under Team Control through 2016
7. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles – Signed through 2019 for $153 million
6. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee – Signed through 2020 for $128 million
5. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami – Under Team Control through 2016
4. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay – Signed through 2016 for $38 million
3. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh – Signed through 2018 for $63 million
2. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington – Under Team Control through 2018
1. Mike Trout, OF, Anaheim – Under Team Control through 2017

[Ben (Rays GM)]

I agree with the top 5 completely: Trout, Harper, and Stanton are elite youngsters, and McCutchen and Longoria are so cheap, chances are they'll make less over those time frames than will the other three (due to arbitration).

Heyward looks too high for me, given his high K-rate leading to just a .269 average in what's supposed to be a "breakout" year. And he was just so bad last year, despite his BABIP being right about where you'd expect given batted ball data. Strasburg, Posey, and Lawrie seem a bit low but then again cost-controlled players IRL aren't worth what they're worth in Pro-GM due to arbitration. With that contract, Bumgarner could be higher, as could Matt Moore (sorry, for the purposes of this post, "higher" equals closer to #1, while "lower" equals closer to #50). I like that Bundy, Profar, and Myers made the list, but then - where's Bauer? Not a fan of Castro, Escobar, or Andrus, but I guess teams would give a lot for a cheap, serviceable shortstop. Pineda's injury is disappointing, wonder where a healthy Pineda would be on this list...