Prospect Evaluation

[Brian (Blue Jays GM)]

Hey guys,

I'm curious to see how people evaluate prospects with "interesting" (or more like perplexing) numbers. I'd like to use this thread just to see how everyone approaches evaluations. Feel free to post your own players who you want input on as well.

The first guy I want to open for discussion is Mets pitching prospect Jenry Mejia. According to Metsminorleagueblog.com :

"Small sample size and all, but in 21.1 innings and 16 games out of the Bisons’ bullpen, Mejia had a 5.48 ERA and opponents hit .303 against him. In 23.1 innings as a starter, he has a 1.16 ERA and opponents have hit .181 against him. Total fluke, or something real and important or something completely in-between?"

What are people's thoughts on this stat line?

[Deleted]

Not about his stats specifically, but...

Mejia has the stuff to be a #2-3 SP, but not the durability. Not what I would call injury-prone, but he hasn't shown the ability to hold up to a starter's workload. Plus, in many of his early appearances, he was shaking off rust from his shoulder woes from 2011, so that may contribute to his inflated numbers as a RP (I'll admit, I haven't looked).

[Ben (Rays GM)]

Any idea what his K/BB in the starts vs the relief appearances is?

[Brian (Blue Jays GM)]

tried to paste his whole stats, that was a disaster.

Starter: 12k/8bb

Reliever: 10k/9bb

[Ben (Rays GM)]

Aug 7, 2012 10:48:39 GMT -5 Brian (Blue Jays GM) said:

Starter: 12k/8bb

Reliever: 10k/9bb

Yeah that's not particularly good. I'll go with "total fluke."

[Billy (Cardinals GM)]

Aug 7, 2012 9:03:41 GMT -5 @miamidan said:

Not about his stats specifically, but...

Mejia has the stuff to be a #2-3 SP, but not the durability. Not what I would call injury-prone, but he hasn't shown the ability to hold up to a starter's workload. Plus, in many of his early appearances, he was shaking off rust from his shoulder woes from 2011, so that may contribute to his inflated numbers as a RP (I'll admit, I haven't looked).

This is pretty accurate if you ask me.

As a Mets fan I've seen Mejia a few times and I like his stuff a lot. It seems like he has the ability to be a very good starter but his arm isn't effective after the 4th or 5th inning (depending on his pitch count). Your mindset as a reliever is very different as a starter and trying to go from one to another isn't easy at all. The Mets have tried him as a starter in the majors in 2010 with little success:

3 GS, 0-2, 7.94 ERA, 11.1 IP, 5 K's, 5 BB, 17 hits, 11 runs

Not great numbers at all. But his stats as a reliever the same year were much better.

30 G, 0-2, 3.25 ERA, 27.2 IP, 17 K's, 15 BB, 29 hits, 10 runs

His biggest problem is his walk rate. He puts way too many men on base and it leads to him giving up more and more runs. He has this problem as a starter and reliever and that is the main thing holding him back in my opinion. He's never going to be a player that blows people away but he could be effective if he works on his command.

Bottom line is that he probably will be a pretty good middle reliever. The Mets have a few guys like Matt Harvey, Zach Wheeler and Jeurys Familia who could all be starting for them within the next 4 years or so (Harvey has already made his MLB debut and has looked pretty good so far). There's no point in trying to force Mejia to become a starter with those guys in the system. Put him in a spot where there isn't a lot of pressure on him and I think he can do very well.