Playoff Picture, 9/3
Sept 3, 2012 11:17:26 GMT -5
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Sept 3, 2012 11:17:26 GMT -5
This is it, the final week of our regular season! Half of the playoff teams have been determined. Let's take a look.
Quick note on tiebreakers:
1) If two teams finish tied for first place in a division, the division winner will be the team with the best record within the division (listed on the league standings under "div").
2) If teams remain tied, Yahoo then looks at winning percentage for the final week of the season, followed by winning percentage for the second-to-last week, followed by the third-to-last week, etc. Basically, it just goes backwards until it reaches a point where one team has a better recent-record than the other. In the event of a wild card tie, only this second tiebreaker is used. This second tiebreaker will also be used to determine playoff seeding if two division winners have the same record.
3) In the event of a three-(or more)-way tie atop a division that is also a three-(or more)-way tie for the Wild Card, the division winner is determined by the first method and the Wild Card winner is determined by the second.
NL East:
With the Mets (11-8-2) losing to the Marlins (7-11-3) and the Nationals (12-8-1) losing to the Cubs (9-9-3), the Nationals remain 0.5 games ahead in the division. Neither team is in Wild Card contention anymore, so it all comes down to this week's match-ups. The Nationals have a better record within the division (5-0-1 compared to 4-3-0), meaning the only way the Mets can make the playoffs is if they win their match-up and the Nationals lose - if either team ties, or if they both win or both lose, the Nationals win the division. The Nationals face the 16-4-1 Reds in a potential second-round preview while the Mets face the 3-17-1 Cardinals. The winner of this division will be the fourth seed in the playoffs.
NL Central:
The Reds (16-4-1) clinched the division two weeks ago, and now have a 4.5 game lead on the Pirates (12-9-0). By defeating the Dodgers (10-9-2) last week, the Reds have secured the second seed in the playoffs.
NL West:
The Giants (18-1-2) clinched the division two weeks ago, and now have a 4.0 game lead on the Rockies (14-5-2), who win the Wild Card. They secured the number one seed in the playoffs last week and will play the winner of the NL East, either the Nationals or the Mets.
NL Wild Card:
The Rockies (14-5-2) clinched the Wild Card with a victory over the Brewers (9-10-2). They will be the third seed in the playoffs and will play the Reds.
AL East:
The Rays (18-2-1) clinched the AL East and secured the number one seed in the playoffs a week ago. This past week, their victory over the Indians (13-5-3) serves only as a potential second-round preview.
AL Central:
The Indians' (13-5-3) loss to the Rays (18-2-1) and the Royals' (14-7-0) victory over the Orioles (6-12-3) has allowed the Royals to move to within a half game of the Indians. The Royals have the better in-division record, so if the division ends up tied, the Royals will make the playoffs. Both teams face challenging opponents who are also in must-win situations: The Indians face the Blue Jays (15-4-2) while the Royals face the Red Sox (15-6-0). The winner of this division will be the third seed in the playoffs.
AL West:
A week ago, the Angels (8-11-2) were in third place, tied with the Mariners (7-12-2) for second on record but behind in the tiebreaker. The Angels beat the Yankees (1-19-1) while the Mariners lost to the Blue Jays (15-4-2) and the first place Athletics (8-12-2) lost to the Red Sox (15-6-0), moving the Angels into first place by a half-game over the Athletics and a full game over the Mariners. The Mariners face the Yankees this week. Their 3-2-1 in-division record is the best of the lot, so if they win and the Angels lose, they can win the division as long as the Athletics lose or tie. If the Angels defeat the Twins (6-13-2), they clinch the division regardless. A tie for the Angels means the Athletics, with a 3-3-0 within the division, can clinch with a victory over the Tigers (11-7-3). The winner of this division will be the fourth seed in the playoffs and will play the Rays.
AL Wild Card:
The Blue Jays' (15-4-2) victory over the Mariners (7-12-2) and the Red Sox' (15-6-0) victory over the Athletics (8-12-2) means the AL Wild Card is now a two-horse race, with the Royals (14-7-0) eliminated. The Blue Jays hold a one game lead, but given the nature of the tiebreaker for Wild Card races, which looks first at the teams' records for the final week of the season, the Red Sox remain alive. Both teams play tough opponents who are themselves battling it out for the AL Central title. If the Red Sox defeat the Royals (14-7-0) and the Blue Jays lose to the Indians (13-5-3), the Red Sox will clinch the Wild Card on the tiebreaker (a final week win bests a final week loss). Any other result - whether it be a Blue Jays win or tie or a Red Sox loss or tie - will see the Blue Jays winning the Wild Card and clinching the second seed in the playoffs, facing the AL Central winner.
Games to watch
Nationals - Reds: The Nationals need only tie the Reds to guarantee the NL East crown. The Reds are favorites to win the match-up, however.
Mets - Cardinals: The Mets are in a must-win game. They are heavy favorites to beat the Cardinals, but they must hope for a Nationals loss as well or it won't matter.
Blue Jays - Indians: The winner of this match-up will certainly make the playoffs, but it is conceivable that the loser could as well. The Blue Jays need only tie to guarantee themselves the AL Wild Card. A tie could be enough for the Indians as well, but only if the Royals lose or tie. If the Blue Jays lose, they will be hoping for a Red Sox loss or tie. If the Indians lose, they will be hoping for a Royals loss. The Blue Jays should be considered slight favorites.
Red Sox - Royals: A must-win for the Red Sox and a near must-win for the Royals. The Red Sox win must be coupled with a Blue Jays loss for them to make the playoffs. If the Royals win and the Indians don't, they're in the playoffs. A tie could be enough for the Royals as well but only if the Indians lose. The Red Sox should be considered slight favorites over the Royals.
Angels - Twins: The Angels can clinch the AL West with a victory. A tie could be enough as long as the Athletics don't win. A loss would only be enough if the Athletics lose and the Mariners lose or tie. The Angels should be considered favorites given the lack of a true SP for the Twins, but if the Twins' six RPs can rack up 20 innings between them to reach the minimum like they did last week, or if John Lannan can earn a spot start for the Nationals in place of one of the younger arms (who they have been talking about shutting down for months now), the Twins are right back in it, as they should easily win ERA and K/BB as long as they reach 20 innings.
Athletics - Tigers: If the Angels lose, the Athletics need only to tie to clinch the division - but only if the Mariners don't win. If the Angels tie, the Athletics need a win to clinch the division, regardless of what the Mariners do. As long as the Athletics have a better result than the Angels and don't have a worse result than the Mariners, they will win the division. The Tigers, however, must be considered favorites in this match-up.
Mariners - Yankees: A must-win for the Mariners. A win is enough only if the Angels lose and the Athletics don't win. Mariners are heavy favorites over the Yankees, so they can probably count on a win here, but it's what happens in the other two match-ups that really matters.
Quick note on tiebreakers:
1) If two teams finish tied for first place in a division, the division winner will be the team with the best record within the division (listed on the league standings under "div").
2) If teams remain tied, Yahoo then looks at winning percentage for the final week of the season, followed by winning percentage for the second-to-last week, followed by the third-to-last week, etc. Basically, it just goes backwards until it reaches a point where one team has a better recent-record than the other. In the event of a wild card tie, only this second tiebreaker is used. This second tiebreaker will also be used to determine playoff seeding if two division winners have the same record.
3) In the event of a three-(or more)-way tie atop a division that is also a three-(or more)-way tie for the Wild Card, the division winner is determined by the first method and the Wild Card winner is determined by the second.
NL East:
With the Mets (11-8-2) losing to the Marlins (7-11-3) and the Nationals (12-8-1) losing to the Cubs (9-9-3), the Nationals remain 0.5 games ahead in the division. Neither team is in Wild Card contention anymore, so it all comes down to this week's match-ups. The Nationals have a better record within the division (5-0-1 compared to 4-3-0), meaning the only way the Mets can make the playoffs is if they win their match-up and the Nationals lose - if either team ties, or if they both win or both lose, the Nationals win the division. The Nationals face the 16-4-1 Reds in a potential second-round preview while the Mets face the 3-17-1 Cardinals. The winner of this division will be the fourth seed in the playoffs.
NL Central:
The Reds (16-4-1) clinched the division two weeks ago, and now have a 4.5 game lead on the Pirates (12-9-0). By defeating the Dodgers (10-9-2) last week, the Reds have secured the second seed in the playoffs.
NL West:
The Giants (18-1-2) clinched the division two weeks ago, and now have a 4.0 game lead on the Rockies (14-5-2), who win the Wild Card. They secured the number one seed in the playoffs last week and will play the winner of the NL East, either the Nationals or the Mets.
NL Wild Card:
The Rockies (14-5-2) clinched the Wild Card with a victory over the Brewers (9-10-2). They will be the third seed in the playoffs and will play the Reds.
AL East:
The Rays (18-2-1) clinched the AL East and secured the number one seed in the playoffs a week ago. This past week, their victory over the Indians (13-5-3) serves only as a potential second-round preview.
AL Central:
The Indians' (13-5-3) loss to the Rays (18-2-1) and the Royals' (14-7-0) victory over the Orioles (6-12-3) has allowed the Royals to move to within a half game of the Indians. The Royals have the better in-division record, so if the division ends up tied, the Royals will make the playoffs. Both teams face challenging opponents who are also in must-win situations: The Indians face the Blue Jays (15-4-2) while the Royals face the Red Sox (15-6-0). The winner of this division will be the third seed in the playoffs.
AL West:
A week ago, the Angels (8-11-2) were in third place, tied with the Mariners (7-12-2) for second on record but behind in the tiebreaker. The Angels beat the Yankees (1-19-1) while the Mariners lost to the Blue Jays (15-4-2) and the first place Athletics (8-12-2) lost to the Red Sox (15-6-0), moving the Angels into first place by a half-game over the Athletics and a full game over the Mariners. The Mariners face the Yankees this week. Their 3-2-1 in-division record is the best of the lot, so if they win and the Angels lose, they can win the division as long as the Athletics lose or tie. If the Angels defeat the Twins (6-13-2), they clinch the division regardless. A tie for the Angels means the Athletics, with a 3-3-0 within the division, can clinch with a victory over the Tigers (11-7-3). The winner of this division will be the fourth seed in the playoffs and will play the Rays.
AL Wild Card:
The Blue Jays' (15-4-2) victory over the Mariners (7-12-2) and the Red Sox' (15-6-0) victory over the Athletics (8-12-2) means the AL Wild Card is now a two-horse race, with the Royals (14-7-0) eliminated. The Blue Jays hold a one game lead, but given the nature of the tiebreaker for Wild Card races, which looks first at the teams' records for the final week of the season, the Red Sox remain alive. Both teams play tough opponents who are themselves battling it out for the AL Central title. If the Red Sox defeat the Royals (14-7-0) and the Blue Jays lose to the Indians (13-5-3), the Red Sox will clinch the Wild Card on the tiebreaker (a final week win bests a final week loss). Any other result - whether it be a Blue Jays win or tie or a Red Sox loss or tie - will see the Blue Jays winning the Wild Card and clinching the second seed in the playoffs, facing the AL Central winner.
Games to watch
Nationals - Reds: The Nationals need only tie the Reds to guarantee the NL East crown. The Reds are favorites to win the match-up, however.
Mets - Cardinals: The Mets are in a must-win game. They are heavy favorites to beat the Cardinals, but they must hope for a Nationals loss as well or it won't matter.
Blue Jays - Indians: The winner of this match-up will certainly make the playoffs, but it is conceivable that the loser could as well. The Blue Jays need only tie to guarantee themselves the AL Wild Card. A tie could be enough for the Indians as well, but only if the Royals lose or tie. If the Blue Jays lose, they will be hoping for a Red Sox loss or tie. If the Indians lose, they will be hoping for a Royals loss. The Blue Jays should be considered slight favorites.
Red Sox - Royals: A must-win for the Red Sox and a near must-win for the Royals. The Red Sox win must be coupled with a Blue Jays loss for them to make the playoffs. If the Royals win and the Indians don't, they're in the playoffs. A tie could be enough for the Royals as well but only if the Indians lose. The Red Sox should be considered slight favorites over the Royals.
Angels - Twins: The Angels can clinch the AL West with a victory. A tie could be enough as long as the Athletics don't win. A loss would only be enough if the Athletics lose and the Mariners lose or tie. The Angels should be considered favorites given the lack of a true SP for the Twins, but if the Twins' six RPs can rack up 20 innings between them to reach the minimum like they did last week, or if John Lannan can earn a spot start for the Nationals in place of one of the younger arms (who they have been talking about shutting down for months now), the Twins are right back in it, as they should easily win ERA and K/BB as long as they reach 20 innings.
Athletics - Tigers: If the Angels lose, the Athletics need only to tie to clinch the division - but only if the Mariners don't win. If the Angels tie, the Athletics need a win to clinch the division, regardless of what the Mariners do. As long as the Athletics have a better result than the Angels and don't have a worse result than the Mariners, they will win the division. The Tigers, however, must be considered favorites in this match-up.
Mariners - Yankees: A must-win for the Mariners. A win is enough only if the Angels lose and the Athletics don't win. Mariners are heavy favorites over the Yankees, so they can probably count on a win here, but it's what happens in the other two match-ups that really matters.
