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Post by Kevin (Guardians GM) on Oct 4, 2012 12:58:53 GMT -5
Who gets your vote and and why?
Trout or Caberra.
Would love to see some others thoughts - I'll get mine on after work.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2012 13:07:46 GMT -5
Trout - led AL in OPS+ (5 points higher than Miggy) & SB (at a 90% clip), better defender.
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Post by Brian (Blue Jays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 13:11:22 GMT -5
Both have great credentials:
Cabrera- Leader in AVG, HR, RBI
Trout- Leader in Runs, SB, Very strong HR and AVG
Trout has a big defensive advantage but Cabrera's team made the playoffs while Trout's did not.
My vote goes to Cabrera because his team made the playoffs and no one else has led those three categories in the same season in 45 years.
Both truly historic seasons though.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2012 13:17:43 GMT -5
I have an issue with the 'playoffs' argument - Trout's team won more games, in a tougher division, and that's with Trout being in 22 lesser games than Cabrera.
Also..."and no one else has led those three categories"
Completely arbitrary, IMO - Trout led in Runs, SB, and OPS+ - that hasn't been done since 1990, by Rickey Henderson...who won the MVP that year.
Not saying Cabrera didn't have a great season, because he did - he's just not my MVP.
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Post by Oren (Diamondbacks GM) on Oct 4, 2012 13:18:51 GMT -5
ops plus isn't a stat ops is and miggy had the higher one
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Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 13:21:26 GMT -5
I've got to go with Trout. As much as I love Cabrera and respect the historical achievement of his triple crown, Trout made history this year as well. His 10.4 fWAR is the highest of any player since Barry Bonds in 2004, thanks to his being one of the best defensive CFs in the game in addition to being a fantastic hitter. The Triple Crown is a cool achievement, but I've never been a fan of judging an individual's performance on team dependent stats like RsBI (which is why you'll never see them as a category in this league), and Cabrera's advantage in RsBI is mostly negated by Trout's advantage in Runs anyway, and is more than negated by the huge number of GIDPs that Cabrera had this year (yes, he had more men on base than Trout, a leadoff hitter, had, but that's why he had more RsBI as well. You can't have it both ways - if you want to use RsBI, you can't ignore GIDPs). As for average, Trout was Cabrera's nearest competitor, finishing just .004 points behind, and Trout topped Cabrera in OBP, so that's just about a push. Cabrera wins in power, Trout wins in base running and defense - so which is more important, power or base running/defense? That's why we have WAR, which Trout wins handily.
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Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 13:22:21 GMT -5
ops plus isn't a stat ops is and miggy had the higher one No. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2012 13:23:19 GMT -5
How is OPS+ not a stat? It's a statistical adjustment and relative comparison of a statistic - which is still a stat.
OPS+ = 100* (OBP / lg OBP + SLG / lg SLG - 1)
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Post by Oren (Diamondbacks GM) on Oct 4, 2012 13:26:13 GMT -5
miggy had a .999 ops
trout had a .963 ops
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Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 13:28:23 GMT -5
I don't understand why winning the Triple Crown should have anything to do with the MVP. Award the Triple Crown winner with the Triple Crown. Award the Most Valuable Player with the MVP.
That's not to say there isn't a strong case to be made for Cabrera; there is. But that isn't it.
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Post by Oren (Diamondbacks GM) on Oct 4, 2012 13:28:40 GMT -5
I look at MLB stats I'm really agains all this sabr stats like fip ops+ and others.. WAR a bit less but I think stats should be taken Into account more than this modified stats but that's just me which is why I like miggy I'll explain why when I get home
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Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 13:35:23 GMT -5
How is OPS+ not a stat? It's a statistical adjustment and relative comparison of a statistic - which is still a stat. OPS+ = 100* (OBP / lg OBP + SLG / lg SLG - 1) Pretty sure there's more to it than that. Fangraphs OPS+ takes into account park factors. Otherwise I don't think there'd be much difference in the relationships between OPS and OPS+ for these two players, since they both play in the AL. miggy had a .999 ops trout had a .963 ops The point is, you have to take them in context. Which means more, 40 HRs in Colorado or 40 HRs in Oakland? OPS+ provides that context. I look at MLB stats I'm really agains all this sabr stats like fip ops+ and others.. WAR a bit less but I think stats should be taken Into account more than this modified stats but that's just me which is why I like miggy I'll explain why when I get home If you just want to look at more "traditional" stats, Trout wins in OBP, SBs, and Rs while Cabrera wins in SLG, HRs, AVG, and RsBI. They each won some, how do we decide which one are "more valuable?" That's what advanced stats do, they help us sort out how meaningful each stat is - nothing more and nothing less. |
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Post by Kevin (Guardians GM) on Oct 4, 2012 13:38:06 GMT -5
One thing that has not been mentioned yet here and may influence some voters is that trout as a rookie will win rookie of the year, so voters may give mvp vote to caberra. I do think there is a Possiblity of that happening just like some voters wont vote for pitchers.
I don't think it should sway votes but it may.
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Post by Oren (Diamondbacks GM) on Oct 4, 2012 14:32:08 GMT -5
This is why i think Miggy will win MVP...
i think if you balance out offensive and defensive stats they are about even.... but although angels got more wins they didn't make the playoffs and tigers did which is why he will win the MVP
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Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 14:38:15 GMT -5
This is why i think Miggy will win MVP... i think if you balance out offensive and defensive stats they are about even.... but although angels got more wins they didn't make the playoffs and tigers did which is why he will win the MVP If you balance out offensive and defensive stats, they're not about even. There's no reason to make an assumption like that when there are people who have gone through over a hundred years worth of data to determine exactly how defense and offense balance and how much they're worth for the players' teams. You say you don't like sabermetrics, yet you're trying to do exactly what sabermetrics do only without access to the information that they have. These people have determined, by looking backwards at how teams did and how the players on those teams performed, exactly how much a player's contributions are worth to their teams in terms of wins, and they've determined that Trout was worth 3 more wins than Miggy, and worth more than any player in a season since Barry Bonds in 2004. |
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Post by Oren (Diamondbacks GM) on Oct 4, 2012 14:44:17 GMT -5
ok.... thats your opinion and in my opinion trout is an overrated defender.. yes he is a very good defender but just cause he makes spectacular catches doesntm ake him ridiculous..... miggy is a solid defender and he has played 3B never before in his life trout has played in the OF all sure trout has 3 more wins than miggy but the fact that the tigers are making the playoffs and angels dont is why miggy WILL win MVP
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Post by Brian (Blue Jays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 14:56:07 GMT -5
miggy is a solid defender and he has played 3B never before in his life .960 fielding percentage and 13 errors is not exactly a "solid" defender Also, Cabrera has played 3B before, 30 games each in '03 and '05, 150+ games each in '06 and '07 |
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Post by Oren (Diamondbacks GM) on Oct 4, 2012 14:58:33 GMT -5
oh my bad.. istill think miggy will win mvp
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Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 14:59:28 GMT -5
ok.... thats your opinion and in my opinion trout is an overrated defender.. yes he is a very good defender but just cause he makes spectacular catches doesntm ake him ridiculous..... miggy is a solid defender and he has played 3B never before in his life trout has played in the OF all sure trout has 3 more wins than miggy but the fact that the tigers are making the playoffs and angels dont is why miggy WILL win MVP Nowhere in my post did I express an opinion. The entire post was about how sabermetrics allow us to avoid opinions and look at facts instead. |
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Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 15:02:50 GMT -5
Also, I'm not arguing about who will win, I'm arguing about who should. My opinion is that Trout should, but I respect the opinion that Cabrera should. But my point in the previous post had nothing to do with that - my point in the previous post was that there's no reason to belittle sabermetrics in one breath and then in the next try to decide for yourself, based on 0 evidence, that Miggy's defensive shortcomings are balanced out by his superior hitting. Sabermetrics allow you to make an objective, unbiased conclusion on the matter, based on a hundred years worth of evidence, and they conclude that, while Cabrera had a very good season, Trout had a historically good season.
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Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 15:11:28 GMT -5
One more opinion to add to the mix:
If I were a GM charged with building the best possible team for 2013, with no interest whatsoever in 2014 and beyond and no regard for salary, I would take Miggy over Trout. And if I have the first pick in a fantasy draft for a typical 5x5 public league next year, I'm choosing Miggy. But it doesn't change the fact that Trout's 2012 was worth more than Miggy's.
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Post by Oren (Diamondbacks GM) on Oct 4, 2012 15:13:00 GMT -5
i agree with you on that point obviously for a dynasty league id choose trout though i just think its miggys year this year
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Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 15:16:57 GMT -5
i agree with you on that point obviously for a dynasty league id choose trout though i just think its miggys year this year That wasn't my point at all. |
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Post by Brian (Blue Jays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 15:21:40 GMT -5
I'm so confused I just accidentally voted for Pat Buchanan!
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Post by Oren (Diamondbacks GM) on Oct 4, 2012 15:21:48 GMT -5
well i saw your message before you said But it doesn't change the fact that Trout's 2012 was worth more than Miggy's.
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Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 16:27:57 GMT -5
Other names that (maybe) should be in the conversation:
Robinson Cano
Adrian Beltre
Amazing - of the top 15 hitters for WAR, only 4 are in the AL. Is this a sign of a power shift?
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Post by Oren (Diamondbacks GM) on Oct 4, 2012 16:31:12 GMT -5
beltre had a phenominal season
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Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 16:56:58 GMT -5
For sure, so did Cano - really a race for third between those two though
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Post by Oren (Diamondbacks GM) on Oct 4, 2012 22:06:39 GMT -5
this is why i think miggy should win MVP... FACT: Trout missed nearly a month. Anything could have happened in that month. He could have slumped. He could have gotten hurt. Whatever the case may be, he didn't play a full season.
These are just some facts that correspond to the argument of trout.. it doesnt making 100% sense inthis context its just an argument that i brought up somewhere else and i thought i would post it.
FACT: Detroit had the fewest total chances of any team in the AL, a fact attributed largely to their inability to reach balls put in play (something that has been discussed at length throughout their team several times). 104 fewer total chances at a .983 total fielding percentage = 102 fewer outs they could have gotten throughout the course of games to put them at par with the Angels. You think there are some losses in there that would at least equate to 22 blown saves? I'd suggest there are.
FACT: Cabrera drove in more runs than anyone. Period. When people were on base, he drove more of them in.FACT: The award is called the Most VALUABLE...note that word...VALUABLE...player. It's not the Most Statistically Impressive Player. It's not the Most Sabremetrically Pleasing Player. It's the Most Valuable. That's the guy that would have the greatest negative impact on a team if he was removed from the lineup.FACT: The Angels didn't make the playoffs. Period. Whether they were in a "tough division" or the Tigers were in a weak division is completely irrelevant. The two teams in the West that made the playoffs were also in a tough division. The two teams in the East that made the playoffs were in a division that was almost as tough.
In the end, the Angels didn't fare any better with him than they would have without him (I'm not talking about the wins in this case...I'm simply talking about making the postseason). If anything, and this is not a knock on Trout, not having him in the lineup this season would have actually benefited the Angels in a sense. If he's the MVP-caliber player people say he is, then leaving him out of the lineup would have created such a hole in the Angels that they would have dropped in the standings and gotten themselves a higher draft pick in 2013. So in a left-handed sense, his presence in the lineup cost the Angels in that they lost draft pick positioning and didn't make up for it in terms of a playoff appearance.
FACT: The Angels spent $35 million more on player salaries than the Tigers did. Now, since we're in an era whereby talented players quite often go to the highest bidder, that suggests that the talent level of the Angels is greater than that of the Tigers, which increases Cabrera's value in turn.
Again, I like Trout. I think he's a great player. I think he'll probably win the MVP one year or another. But he doesn't deserve it as much as Cabrera does, simply because he didn't lead what by your argument is a more talented team to the playoffs. That's what makes an MVP an MVP. Cabrera's team made the postseason.
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Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Oct 4, 2012 22:51:31 GMT -5
There's one valid point in this argument: the Tigers made the playoffs, the Angels didn't. If you believe that the MVP should be from a playoff team, then obviously you vote for Cabrera. Personally, I think all other things being equal, I'd vote for the player on the playoff team as well - however, all other things aren't equal in this case, not when you're comparing the best performance by any player in the last eight years to the eighth best performance by a position player this year.
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