Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Jan 9, 2013 16:27:07 GMT -5
I did not include players who received no votes in the actual 2013 election because including all of them would have exceeded the maximum number of candidates in a Proboards poll.
Please note that percentages next to the players' names are NOT the percentage of ballots that the players appear on. A player must be named on 75% of ballots to earn enshrinement. To calculate percentage, take the number of votes received and divide by the number of voters, then multiply by 100.
Vote and Discuss. Votes may be retracted and changed.
Post by Brian (Blue Jays GM) on Jan 10, 2013 11:54:02 GMT -5
Another interesting poll we could run would be next year's HOF ballot which includes most of the names above plus Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, Frank Thomas, Jeff Kent, etc.
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Jan 10, 2013 13:50:19 GMT -5
With 18 ballots submitted, we currently stand at:
--------IN-------- Biggio - 88.9% Piazza - 77.8% --------OUT-------- Tim Raines - 72.2% Barry Bonds - 66.7% Jeff Bagwell - 55.6% Roger Clemens - 55.6% Edgar Martinez - 50% Jack Morris - 50% Curt Schilling - 38.9% Kenny Lofton - 33.3% Mark McGwire - 33.3% Sammy Sosa - 27.8% Larry Walker - 27.8% Fred McGriff - 16.7% Alan Trammell - 16.7% Dale Murphy - 11.1% Lee Smith - 11.1% Steve Finley - 5.6% Julio Franco - 5.6% Don Mattingly - 5.6% Rafael Palmeiro - 5.6% Sandy Alomar, Jr. - 0% Shawn Green - 0% Aaron Sele - 0% David Wells - 0% Bernie Williams - 0%
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Jan 10, 2013 14:51:43 GMT -5
Currently named on 14 out of 19 ballots, Tim Raines reaches 75% if he's named on the next ballot cast. I'd like to make a case in his favor:
Raines is 5th all time with 808 career SBs. Of the top 150 players all-time in SBs, Raines is number one in success rate. 808 career SBs and nobody with even half that many can top him in success rate (Carlos Beltran, 86.7% rate, 155th all time in SBs with 306 - over 500 fewer than Raines).
Historically, speed has been the trait most associated with leading off, although now most people will agree that OBP is more important for a leadoff hitter. Raines excelled in both areas. In his prime he was stealing 70 bases per season (he had six consecutive seasons with 70 or more) with an OBP of .400. Imagine Carl Crawford back when he was good (back when the Red Sox decided he was worth $142 million) but give him an extra 50 walks per season and you get Tim Raines. I'd call him the second best leadoff hitter ever (after Ricky Henderson).
As I wrote last year: His 70.9 career fWAR ranks him ahead of Mark McGwire, Barry Larkin, Craig Biggio, Ozzie Smith, Lou Boudreau, Billy Williams, Pee Wee Reese, Billy Hamilton, Manny Ramirez, Bobby Wallace, Hank Greenberg, Roberto Alomar, Tony Gwynn, Tony Perez, Dave Winfield, and many others.
Oh, and he was active during four decades (which is awesome) and he added two World Series titles with the Yankees (for those who care).
Don't forget, you can always retract and change your vote!
Last Edit: Jan 10, 2013 15:12:06 GMT -5 by Ben (Rays GM)
And if your a fan of Raines, give Lofton another look. I cannot believe he didn't get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot for next year. 66.2 WAR with 1000 less PAs than Raines.
Post by Brian (Blue Jays GM) on Jan 10, 2013 15:41:39 GMT -5
Dan, can you honestly say that Lofton belonged in the top 10 players on that ballot? I can find 15 at least that I would say were better players than Lofton. He was very good but not nearly hall of fame worthy.
And if your a fan of Raines, give Lofton another look. I cannot believe he didn't get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot for next year. 66.2 WAR with 1000 less PAs than Raines.
Completely agree that Lofton deserves serious consideration. I wouldn't have voted for him myself but I'm shocked that he didn't manage 5%. If not for the current situation Lofton would have spent all 15 years on the ballot for sure, and might have even snuck in eventually. The 10 vote rule needs to go.
I couldn't agree more, I had to leave a few guys off my ballot who I felt were worthy of the hall but just weren't better than the guys i voted for. I certainly would have liked to vote for more players
I think the 300-300 club makes one an extremely deserving candidate. I'm the one Finley vote. And it's hard to justify him and not Reggie Sanders, so maybe it's because one I think my favorite non-Yankees baseball moment of the last decade was his walk-off grand slam on the last day of the season to clinch an amazing comeback. That was just miraculous. Even better than Boston's comeback (albeit against the Yanks) in '04 or any personal milestone. And he and Schilling beat the Yanks badly in '01 (with help from many others of course), and I still voted for both of them. Not all the memories of them are good (especially Schilling's 'bloody sock'. That was even worse).
Also Sanders had significantly less hits. Finley had about 1000 more. I'm sure there was a major difference in At Bats, but PT/longevity are factors to remain considered.
Bernie and Lofton are just off with Sanders for me, and I didn't even include Bonds and Clemens yet. If the ballot were expanded I would have to consider those 5 very strongly. Maybe Raffy and Sosa too.
Anyway, I am probably the youngest GM here, so I did not get to see the prime of many of these careers. Many of my memories are these guys sailing out of the league. I do have different personal biases as a result. Also, I don't remember the steroid era as clearly as most of you. I am not high on any of the accused cheaters. (That doesn't mean Bagwell/Piazza. No evidence against them. They're good)
Last Edit: Jan 10, 2013 16:37:40 GMT -5 by Deleted
Post by Jon (Astros GM) on Jan 10, 2013 20:14:29 GMT -5
I voted for Lofton. Being from Cleveland I got to see him play probably a 100 times in the 90's and he would of been my MVP every year. It's a shame that more players from those 90's Indians didn't get much consideration. Albert Belle would of been close if he hadn't gotten hurt. He might of been more of an asshole then Bonds, and he was good. Manny Ramirez will go through the same thing these guys will go through in 5 years. Only Thome will get in and people are already debating him. I guess you could include Robby Alomr but he wasn't here as long. That bein said, Kenny Lofton was one of the best lead off hitters ever and it's a shame he didn't get enough for future consideration. Maybe the Veterens Committe in 30 years will help him out.
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Jan 11, 2013 15:05:40 GMT -5
From 1996-2001, an average of 14 players per year hit 40 HRs or more. During that span, an average of 38.5 per year hit 30 HRs or more. That's obscene.
I apologize for the long post that follows. If you don't feel like reading on please don't, but don't let it detract from the absurdity of the stat mentioned above. That stat played a major role in my decision making process as I decided not to vote for three of the players that appeared on my original ballot. If you need an excuse not to vote for Sosa, McGwire, or Palmeiro (or even Piazza or Bagwell) that doesn't have to do directly with steroids, read on.
For the following arguments I will be ignoring the issue of steroids, but not the impact that they've had on the numbers. I'm of the opinion that, since we can't know for sure who did and didn't do steroids, we should continue to put the best players of the era in. The Hall is a museum, and museum's are places that house history - good history and bad history both. There should be an entire section of the museum dedicated to steroids, amphetamines, gambling, racism, and the many other dirty secrets of the game, but the plaques should continue to be what they've always been - a recognition of the game's best players. With that in mind, the revelation above regarding the enormous number of HRs has forced me to re-evaluate my perceptions of the best players of the era.
First of all, I've had to retract my vote for Sosa, and it's not a terribly difficult decision. The majority of his value comes from the HRs he hit during those crazy years (he averaged 61 HRs from 1998-2001). He didn't do anything besides hit HRs particularly well - he was a career .273 hitter with a pedestrian .344 OBP. His .534 career SLG is also shockingly low (probably because he topped 30 doubles just three times). He had just three seasons where his fWAR was above 6, and his 64.1 career fWAR is below Kenny Lofton (66.2). When all your value comes from the HR during a time when the HR just wasn't that valuable, I can't justify voting for him.
I've also had to consider whether it's right to be voting for Piazza, Bagwell, Palmeiro, and McGwire for the same reasons - being a HR hitter in this era just doesn't seem as impressive. Thoughts:
Piazza also hit for very good batting averages (.308) and could take a walk (.377 OBP), and played at a premium position. He still easily gets my vote.
Bagwell's .408 career OBP puts him among the game's elite. Still gets my vote.
McGwire's .394 career OBP is up there as well, but McGwire, like Sosa, gets too much of his value from the HRs he hit during this era. In 1996, McGwire was 32 years old. He had some fantastic seasons at the ages of 32, 33, 34, and 35, during the peak of the longball era. Looking at his seasons prior to this (when he should have been at the peak of his career), he just wasn't that impressive. He was injured a lot, he'd regularly hit in the .230 region, and although he could certainly take a walk, he only twice topped a .370 OBP prior to '96 - good, but not Hall worthy. I've decided not to vote for McGwire, but he's closer for me than Sosa is.
Palmeiro - this one's the toughest for me. Palmeiro's .288 career average and .371 career OBP are very good, but not great. Like McGwire and Sosa, a lot of his value comes from HRs, and many of his HRs came during those years. Palmeiro's longevity is extremely impressive, but part of that has to do with the fact that his age 31-36 seasons, when most players would be starting to decline, occurred during those high-HR years. In another offensive environment, his decline might have occurred sooner and more rapidly. For now, I'm not going to vote for him. I may change my mind.
Bonds still gets in. He's one of the best ever.
Seeing as Kenny Lofton managed his value despite being surrounded by players who were jacking the ball out of the park while he was just getting on and running the bases as well as or better than anybody else, he replaces Sosa on my ballot. He's a borderline case, but the fact that a borderline case like Lofton didn't even reach 5% is a travesty.
Alan Trammell, who I didn't vote for originally, gets a vote as well. Great numbers from a SS during an offensively challenged era.
That gives me 9 players on my ballot: Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Lofton, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Trammell.
Gonna toss a vote at David Wells as well. At 4.13 career ERA he probably doesn't deserve to be in (although his adjusted ERA is still better than that of Jack Morris...), but at 61.2 fWAR, he deserves more consideration than he got. In terms of accomplishments, he adds a perfect game and a pair of World Series rings, if you care about those sorts of things. On top of all that, he gets Tony Gwynn bonus points for being a fat guy (with gout) who somehow managed to be a pretty good baseball player, play until he was 44, and miss relatively few games in the process.
Last Edit: Jan 11, 2013 15:20:24 GMT -5 by Ben (Rays GM)
