Playoff Picture, Part 3
Aug 27, 2013 18:20:43 GMT -5
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Aug 27, 2013 18:20:43 GMT -5
Two weeks left and three of the eight playoff teams have yet to be finalized.
Quick note on tiebreakers:
1) If two teams finish tied for first place in a division, the division winner will be the team with the best record within the division (listed on the league standings under "div").
2) If teams remain tied, Yahoo then looks at winning percentage for the final week of the season, followed by winning percentage for the second-to-last week, followed by the third-to-last week, etc. Basically, it just goes backwards until it reaches a point where one team has a better recent-record than the other. In the event of a wild card tie, only this second tiebreaker is used. This second tiebreaker will also be used to determine playoff seeding if two division winners have the same record.
3) In the event of a three-(or more)-way tie atop a division that is also a three-(or more)-way tie for the Wild Card, the division winner is determined by the first method and the Wild Card winner is determined by the second.
NL East:
The Nationals (12-7-1) couldn't pull off back-to-back upsets against the NL West Wild Card contenders, losing to the Dodgers 3-8. The Phillies (12-7-1) were able to take advantage of the situation by defeating the Cardinals, and have moved back into a first place tie. The Phillies' 5-1-1 record within the division slightly bests the Nationals' 4-1-1, but it's close enough that the Nationals could conceivably change that, which makes this arguably the most complex race in the league. The Phillies play the Mets this week while the Nationals play the Braves. Should either team win while the other loses, this race will be over, as that team would move one game ahead with one game to go and would have the better division record. The Phillies have the advantage, however, in that for the moment, the race remains in their hands - should they win this week, a win next week against the Rockies would clinch the division regardless of what the Nationals do.
NL Central:
With the Astros (11-8-1) losing 4-8 to the Pirates, who are eliminated, the tied Reds (12-8-0) and Cubs (12-8-0) have moved back atop the standings by defeating the Brewers and Mets, 7-5 and 7-4, respectively. With a 6-2-0 record against their division rivals, the Reds have the advantage - a tie atop the standings is all they need to win the division, meaning they carry a magic number of 2. They play the Marlins this week and the Giants in the final week of the season, and the Cubs and Astros will hope that this difficult schedule will open the door for one of them to snatch the division title. The Astros don't exactly have an easy schedule either, as they face the Dodgers knowing that a loss combined with a win for either of their rivals will eliminate them. The Cubs face the Rockies, also aware that a loss along with a Reds win would end their playoff dreams. The Cubs face the Cardinals in the season's final week, and have to feel that if they can get through the Rockies, they will be favorites to overtake the Reds when they face the Giants.
NL West:
The Diamondbacks (19-1-0) clinched the division and the number one playoff seed last week. With a chance to set a new best-ever Pro-GM regular season record, they are playing for glory. The current record is held by the 2012 Giants at 19-1-2. The Diamondbacks play the Cardinals this week followed by the Mets in the season's final week. A win in either week would set a new record for the most wins in a season, but a loss in the other week would put them at 20-2-0, and would mean they'd only tie the 2012 Giants' winning percentage. A tie in both weeks would also tie the 2012 Giants' record. Anything better than 1-1-0 or 0-0-2 over the two weeks would give the Diamondbacks the new best record, but anything worse would leave the 2012 Giants' record untouched.
NL Wild Card:
Lest you think the Diamondbacks are the only thing to watch in the NL West, take a look at the Giants (14-5-1) and the Dodgers (14-6-1). Both teams have hit a rough patch at the wrong time: the Dodgers have lost three of their last six match-ups, while the Giants have lost two of their last five, in addition to a 6-6 tie last week against the Marlins. That draw allowed the Dodgers to move back within a half game of the Wild Card by beating the Nationals 8-3. The Dodgers are matched up with the Astros followed by the Padres, while the Giants face the Brewers and then end the season with a challenging match-up against the Reds. Because this is the Wild Card race, division records do not factor in to the tiebreaker. Instead, the Wild Card will be awarded to the team with the better recent record. Should the Dodgers manage to tie the Giants, they will presumably do so by having the better recent record, and would thus win the tiebreaker. However, should the Dodgers pass the Giants this week and then see the Giants tie it back up in the season's final week, it would be the Giants that would triumph. The Phillies and Nationals maintain only a fleeting hope that the loser of the NL East race could snatch the Wild Card away from the NL West teams: at two games behind the Giants, they'd each need to win both their final games while the Giants lose in both of the last two weeks (and the Dodgers manage no more than a single tie) to have any relevance in this race.
AL East:
The Blue Jays (17-1-2) defeated the Tigers 6-3 while the Rays (16-2-2) kept pace by defeating the Angels 9-2. Both teams have clinched the playoffs now but continue to fight for the division and the number one seed in the playoffs. The Blue Jays' magic number is 1 for both prizes: should they win either of their final two match-ups against the Rangers and Royals, or the Rays lose against either the Tigers or Orioles, they will clinch their first division title and the top playoff seed. The Blue Jays have a chance to finish the season at 19-1-2, which would equal the current (but not for long if the Diamondbacks have their say) Pro-GM best-ever record set by the 2012 Giants. The AL best-ever record of 19-2-1 set by the 2012 Rays also looks set to fall, although if the Jays tie either of their last two match-ups, they can only tie this record. Speaking of Pro-GM records, here's one with a little bit of interleague rivalry in play between last year's World Series teams: should the Reds fail to win the NL Central, the Rays will be the only team to make the playoffs in each of the three Pro-GM seasons (the Royals, the only other team to make the playoffs in both 2011 and 2012, have already been eliminated).
AL Central:
The brave Tigers (15-1-4) finally lost this week to the Blue Jays, 3-6. Their undefeated record survived until the 20th week, three weeks longer than the Diamondbacks' undefeated bid lasted this year before they lost in Week 17 and eight weeks longer than any previous attempt (the 2011 Blue Jays lost in the 12th week, while the Giants lost in the 9th week in both 2011 and 2012). They face another tough opponent this week in the form of the Rays, in a match-up with serious playoff connotations: the loser will be eliminated from the race for the top seed. And that's not all - assuming the Blue Jays win one of their remaining games and clinch first place in the AL, the Tigers and Rays will face each other in the ALDS, making this an important preview. Within the playoffs, ties are broken by looking first at the teams' head-to-head record, and then at their playoff seed. Having tied in their only other match-up this season, whichever team wins this week will win in the event of a tie in the ALDS. Should the teams tie this week, a playoff tie will go to whichever team earns the higher seed. Despite currently sporting equal records, the Rays have the second seed by virtue of having the better recent record (they won last week while the Tigers lost). Should either team win this week playoff seed is irrelevant since that team will win the tiebreaker, but should they tie this week, all eyes will be on the final week of the season to see which team gets the second seed. The Tigers face the Red Sox in week 22, and would need the Rays to slip up in their match-up against the Orioles to have a shot at the second seed.
AL West:
Congratulations to the Mariners (12-7-1) on clinching the AL West, which they did with a convincing 9-0 defeat over the Red Sox combined with the Angels (10-10-0) 2-9 loss to the Rays. The Rangers (10-9-1) can tie the Mariners' record if they defeat the Blue Jays and Indians while the Mariners lose to the Indians and Yankees. However, because none of these match-ups are within the division and the Mariners currently own the better division record, there is no chance of the Rangers winning the division, as they'd lose the tiebreaker in the unlikely event that they manage the tie. The Mariners will be the fourth seed in the playoffs.
AL Wild Card:
The AL Wild Card remains the consolation prize for the team that finishes second in the AL East, which is looking more and more likely to be the Rays now that the Jays have reduced their magic number to 1. All other teams have been eliminated for weeks.
Games to watch this week:
Phillies - Mets: tied with the Nationals in the standings, the Phillies want to win not only to stay at the top of the NL East but also to preserve their superior intra-division record, which will come into play in the event of a tie. Should the Braves lose, a win here would clinch the division.
Nationals - Braves: the Nationals need to keep pace with the Phillies by beating the Braves. Should the Phillies lose, a win here would clinch the division.
Reds - Marlins: the Marlins pulled off a surprising 6-6 tie against the Giants last week. Can they do it again this week against the Reds? The Reds can eliminate the Cubs or Astros should they win and either of those teams lose. Should they win and both lose, the Reds would clinch the division.
Cubs - Rockies: tied with the Reds in the standings, the Cubs need help from either the Marlins this week or the Giants next week, as they would lose a tiebreaker against the Reds.
Astros - Dodgers: the Astros need a win or some luck to stay alive - even a tie would eliminate them should either the Reds or Cubs win. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are a half-game behind the Giants in the Wild Card race and remain very much alive.
Giants - Brewers: with a tie last week and a loss the week before, can the Giants get back to their winning ways and keep the pressure on the Dodgers?
Blue Jays - Rangers: the Blue Jays look to clinch their first division title and the number one seed in the playoffs.
Rays - Tigers: both teams would love to catch the Blue Jays and steal the number one seed (and the AL East in the Rays' case), but far more significant is the impact this match-up could have on a potential playoff tiebreaker.
Quick note on tiebreakers:
1) If two teams finish tied for first place in a division, the division winner will be the team with the best record within the division (listed on the league standings under "div").
2) If teams remain tied, Yahoo then looks at winning percentage for the final week of the season, followed by winning percentage for the second-to-last week, followed by the third-to-last week, etc. Basically, it just goes backwards until it reaches a point where one team has a better recent-record than the other. In the event of a wild card tie, only this second tiebreaker is used. This second tiebreaker will also be used to determine playoff seeding if two division winners have the same record.
3) In the event of a three-(or more)-way tie atop a division that is also a three-(or more)-way tie for the Wild Card, the division winner is determined by the first method and the Wild Card winner is determined by the second.
NL East:
The Nationals (12-7-1) couldn't pull off back-to-back upsets against the NL West Wild Card contenders, losing to the Dodgers 3-8. The Phillies (12-7-1) were able to take advantage of the situation by defeating the Cardinals, and have moved back into a first place tie. The Phillies' 5-1-1 record within the division slightly bests the Nationals' 4-1-1, but it's close enough that the Nationals could conceivably change that, which makes this arguably the most complex race in the league. The Phillies play the Mets this week while the Nationals play the Braves. Should either team win while the other loses, this race will be over, as that team would move one game ahead with one game to go and would have the better division record. The Phillies have the advantage, however, in that for the moment, the race remains in their hands - should they win this week, a win next week against the Rockies would clinch the division regardless of what the Nationals do.
NL Central:
With the Astros (11-8-1) losing 4-8 to the Pirates, who are eliminated, the tied Reds (12-8-0) and Cubs (12-8-0) have moved back atop the standings by defeating the Brewers and Mets, 7-5 and 7-4, respectively. With a 6-2-0 record against their division rivals, the Reds have the advantage - a tie atop the standings is all they need to win the division, meaning they carry a magic number of 2. They play the Marlins this week and the Giants in the final week of the season, and the Cubs and Astros will hope that this difficult schedule will open the door for one of them to snatch the division title. The Astros don't exactly have an easy schedule either, as they face the Dodgers knowing that a loss combined with a win for either of their rivals will eliminate them. The Cubs face the Rockies, also aware that a loss along with a Reds win would end their playoff dreams. The Cubs face the Cardinals in the season's final week, and have to feel that if they can get through the Rockies, they will be favorites to overtake the Reds when they face the Giants.
NL West:
The Diamondbacks (19-1-0) clinched the division and the number one playoff seed last week. With a chance to set a new best-ever Pro-GM regular season record, they are playing for glory. The current record is held by the 2012 Giants at 19-1-2. The Diamondbacks play the Cardinals this week followed by the Mets in the season's final week. A win in either week would set a new record for the most wins in a season, but a loss in the other week would put them at 20-2-0, and would mean they'd only tie the 2012 Giants' winning percentage. A tie in both weeks would also tie the 2012 Giants' record. Anything better than 1-1-0 or 0-0-2 over the two weeks would give the Diamondbacks the new best record, but anything worse would leave the 2012 Giants' record untouched.
NL Wild Card:
Lest you think the Diamondbacks are the only thing to watch in the NL West, take a look at the Giants (14-5-1) and the Dodgers (14-6-1). Both teams have hit a rough patch at the wrong time: the Dodgers have lost three of their last six match-ups, while the Giants have lost two of their last five, in addition to a 6-6 tie last week against the Marlins. That draw allowed the Dodgers to move back within a half game of the Wild Card by beating the Nationals 8-3. The Dodgers are matched up with the Astros followed by the Padres, while the Giants face the Brewers and then end the season with a challenging match-up against the Reds. Because this is the Wild Card race, division records do not factor in to the tiebreaker. Instead, the Wild Card will be awarded to the team with the better recent record. Should the Dodgers manage to tie the Giants, they will presumably do so by having the better recent record, and would thus win the tiebreaker. However, should the Dodgers pass the Giants this week and then see the Giants tie it back up in the season's final week, it would be the Giants that would triumph. The Phillies and Nationals maintain only a fleeting hope that the loser of the NL East race could snatch the Wild Card away from the NL West teams: at two games behind the Giants, they'd each need to win both their final games while the Giants lose in both of the last two weeks (and the Dodgers manage no more than a single tie) to have any relevance in this race.
AL East:
The Blue Jays (17-1-2) defeated the Tigers 6-3 while the Rays (16-2-2) kept pace by defeating the Angels 9-2. Both teams have clinched the playoffs now but continue to fight for the division and the number one seed in the playoffs. The Blue Jays' magic number is 1 for both prizes: should they win either of their final two match-ups against the Rangers and Royals, or the Rays lose against either the Tigers or Orioles, they will clinch their first division title and the top playoff seed. The Blue Jays have a chance to finish the season at 19-1-2, which would equal the current (but not for long if the Diamondbacks have their say) Pro-GM best-ever record set by the 2012 Giants. The AL best-ever record of 19-2-1 set by the 2012 Rays also looks set to fall, although if the Jays tie either of their last two match-ups, they can only tie this record. Speaking of Pro-GM records, here's one with a little bit of interleague rivalry in play between last year's World Series teams: should the Reds fail to win the NL Central, the Rays will be the only team to make the playoffs in each of the three Pro-GM seasons (the Royals, the only other team to make the playoffs in both 2011 and 2012, have already been eliminated).
AL Central:
The brave Tigers (15-1-4) finally lost this week to the Blue Jays, 3-6. Their undefeated record survived until the 20th week, three weeks longer than the Diamondbacks' undefeated bid lasted this year before they lost in Week 17 and eight weeks longer than any previous attempt (the 2011 Blue Jays lost in the 12th week, while the Giants lost in the 9th week in both 2011 and 2012). They face another tough opponent this week in the form of the Rays, in a match-up with serious playoff connotations: the loser will be eliminated from the race for the top seed. And that's not all - assuming the Blue Jays win one of their remaining games and clinch first place in the AL, the Tigers and Rays will face each other in the ALDS, making this an important preview. Within the playoffs, ties are broken by looking first at the teams' head-to-head record, and then at their playoff seed. Having tied in their only other match-up this season, whichever team wins this week will win in the event of a tie in the ALDS. Should the teams tie this week, a playoff tie will go to whichever team earns the higher seed. Despite currently sporting equal records, the Rays have the second seed by virtue of having the better recent record (they won last week while the Tigers lost). Should either team win this week playoff seed is irrelevant since that team will win the tiebreaker, but should they tie this week, all eyes will be on the final week of the season to see which team gets the second seed. The Tigers face the Red Sox in week 22, and would need the Rays to slip up in their match-up against the Orioles to have a shot at the second seed.
AL West:
Congratulations to the Mariners (12-7-1) on clinching the AL West, which they did with a convincing 9-0 defeat over the Red Sox combined with the Angels (10-10-0) 2-9 loss to the Rays. The Rangers (10-9-1) can tie the Mariners' record if they defeat the Blue Jays and Indians while the Mariners lose to the Indians and Yankees. However, because none of these match-ups are within the division and the Mariners currently own the better division record, there is no chance of the Rangers winning the division, as they'd lose the tiebreaker in the unlikely event that they manage the tie. The Mariners will be the fourth seed in the playoffs.
AL Wild Card:
The AL Wild Card remains the consolation prize for the team that finishes second in the AL East, which is looking more and more likely to be the Rays now that the Jays have reduced their magic number to 1. All other teams have been eliminated for weeks.
Games to watch this week:
Phillies - Mets: tied with the Nationals in the standings, the Phillies want to win not only to stay at the top of the NL East but also to preserve their superior intra-division record, which will come into play in the event of a tie. Should the Braves lose, a win here would clinch the division.
Nationals - Braves: the Nationals need to keep pace with the Phillies by beating the Braves. Should the Phillies lose, a win here would clinch the division.
Reds - Marlins: the Marlins pulled off a surprising 6-6 tie against the Giants last week. Can they do it again this week against the Reds? The Reds can eliminate the Cubs or Astros should they win and either of those teams lose. Should they win and both lose, the Reds would clinch the division.
Cubs - Rockies: tied with the Reds in the standings, the Cubs need help from either the Marlins this week or the Giants next week, as they would lose a tiebreaker against the Reds.
Astros - Dodgers: the Astros need a win or some luck to stay alive - even a tie would eliminate them should either the Reds or Cubs win. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are a half-game behind the Giants in the Wild Card race and remain very much alive.
Giants - Brewers: with a tie last week and a loss the week before, can the Giants get back to their winning ways and keep the pressure on the Dodgers?
Blue Jays - Rangers: the Blue Jays look to clinch their first division title and the number one seed in the playoffs.
Rays - Tigers: both teams would love to catch the Blue Jays and steal the number one seed (and the AL East in the Rays' case), but far more significant is the impact this match-up could have on a potential playoff tiebreaker.