Playoff Picture, Part 4
Sept 2, 2013 10:34:53 GMT -5
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Sept 2, 2013 10:34:53 GMT -5
One week to go, two races still open - and the current leaders in each of those races are drawn against each other in what might be the most important match-up of the season.
Quick note on tiebreakers:
1) If two teams finish tied for first place in a division, the division winner will be the team with the best record within the division (listed on the league standings under "div").
2) If teams remain tied, Yahoo then looks at winning percentage for the final week of the season, followed by winning percentage for the second-to-last week, followed by the third-to-last week, etc. Basically, it just goes backwards until it reaches a point where one team has a better recent-record than the other. In the event of a wild card tie, only this second tiebreaker is used. This second tiebreaker will also be used to determine playoff seeding if two division winners have the same record.
3) In the event of a three-(or more)-way tie atop a division that is also a three-(or more)-way tie for the Wild Card, the division winner is determined by the first method and the Wild Card winner is determined by the second.
NL East
Last week it seemed that the Phillies (12-8-1) were in the driver's seat, as they were tied for first with the superior record within the division. However their 7-5 loss to the Mets, combined with the Nationals' (13-7-1) 10-2 victory over the Braves, changes everything: the Nationals now have the better division record and are one game ahead. Each team has one game left, and neither game is against a team within the division. This means the best the Phillies can do is to tie the Nationals, in which case they would lose the tiebreaker due to the inferior record within the division. The Nationals have clinched the NL East!
NL Central
The Reds (13-8-0) defeated the Marlins 7-3 to stay in the lead. The Cubs (13-8-0) recorded a heavy 11-1 victory over the Rockies to keep pace. The Astros (11-9-1) lost a 6-5 heartbreaker to the Dodgers, and have been eliminated, as they are now 1.5 games back with one game left to play. The Reds face a challenging opponent in the Giants while the Cubs face the Cardinals. The teams are currently tied in the standings, and the Reds are only ahead by virtue of their record within the division. If either team has a better result than the other this week, that team will win the division. If the teams have the same result, the Reds will win on the tiebreaker.
NL West
The West was won long ago by the Diamondbacks (20-1-0), who this week defeated the Cardinals to set a new record for wins in a season. This week they face the Mets, needing only a tie to set a new best-ever W-L record. Should they lose, they will only equal the 2012 Giants, who finished 19-1-2.
NL Wild Card
The Giants (15-5-1) recorded a 9-2 win over the Brewers while the Dodgers (15-6-0) narrowly defeated the Astros 6-5 to keep pace 0.5 games behind. The Giants face the Reds while the Dodgers have been drawn against the Padres. Intradivisional record is irrelevant here - should the Dodgers win and the Giants tie, or the Dodgers tie and the Giants lose, the teams will end up tied and the second tiebreaker will determine the Wild Card winner. Since the Dodgers would need a better result than the Giants in order to tie the Giants, they would win any such tiebreaker, so as long as they better the Giants' result, the Wild Card is theirs. If the Giants equal or better the Dodgers' result, they will win the Wild Card. All other teams have been eliminated from Wild Card contention.
Playoff Seeding and Contender's Discounts
The number 1 seed has been clinched by the Diamondbacks, who will have a tiebreaker advantage over any team they face in the playoffs until the World Series.
The number 2 seed will go to either the Giants or the Dodgers, depending on which team makes the playoffs. Either team would have the tiebreaker advantage over any of the potential number 3 seeds.
The number 3 seed will go to the Nationals as long as they beat the Pirates. If they lose or tie, the NL Central winner can take the number 3 seed by achieving a better result.
The number 4 seed will go to the NL Central winner or the Nationals
At least one contender's discount will be handed out in the NL, and will go to the loser of the Wild Card race. However, should the Nationals lose, the loser of the NL Central race could be in line for a discount as well, assuming both the Reds and Cubs either tie or win and achieve an identical result. Should the Nationals lose and the Reds and Cubs both fail to win, the Phillies could earn a discount with a victory.
AL East
The Blue Jays (18-1-2) have clinched their first Pro-GM AL East title with an 8-4 victory over the Rangers. They can set a new AL best-ever W-L record with a win, which would also equal the 2012 Giants and, if they lose this week, the 2013 Diamondbacks for best Pro-GM record. Should they tie, they will equal the best-ever AL record with the 2012 Rays, who finished 19-2-1, but fail to match the 2012 Giants.
AL Central
The Tigers (15-2-4) lost 6-4 to the Rays, which only affects playoff seeding, as the Tigers clinched the division weeks ago.
AL West
The Mariners (13-7-1) increased the gap by winning 8-3 over the Red Sox. This race was already over by virtue of the tiebreak system, but now the Mariners have ensured that they will be alone atop the standings with no tiebreak needed.
AL Wild Card
This race has been over for weeks, although it still remained to be decided which team would win the AL East and which would receive the Wild Card as consolation. The Blue Jays clinched the AL East last week, so the Rays (17-2-2) are the Wild Card team.
Playoff Seeding and Contender's Discounts
The number 1 seed presents an odd situation: because we have chosen to seed teams entirely based on record, division winners do not automatically receive the top seeds. Ties are presumably broken by tiebreaker number 2 (above), which does not take into account divisional records. This means that, should the Blue Jays lose and the Rays win, it is conceivable that the Blue Jays could win the AL East but actually be given the number 2 seed while the Rays receive the number 1 seed despite being the Wild Card team. A close reading of the Yahoo rules does not address this situation, so in the unlikely event that it occurs, the outcome is unknown. Regardless of their seed, the Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker advantage over every other AL team in the playoffs.
The number 2 seed will go to the Rays unless they lose and the Tigers win against the Red Sox, in which case the Tigers will take the number 2 seed. Either way, the Rays will have the tiebreaker advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Should the bizarre situation outlined above unfold and the Blue Jays finish with the second seed, they too would have the tiebreaker advantage over the Tigers.
The number 3 seed has been clinched by the Tigers but could go to the Rays if the Tigers manage the second seed.
The number 4 seed will go to the Mariners.
No team in the AL will earn a contender's discount, as a significant gap exists between the records of the four playoff teams and those of the other teams.
Games to watch this week:
Reds - Giants: perhaps the biggest game of the season, even though the teams are running different races. The winner makes the playoffs, while the loser needs to hope help comes from elsewhere.
Cubs - Cardinals: the Cubs want to win to put the pressure on the Reds and put themselves in a position to capitalize on that difficult match-up.
Dodgers - Padres: the Dodgers want to win to put the pressure on the Giants and put themselves in a position to capitalize on that difficult match-up.
Diamondbacks - Mets: the Diamondbacks look to set a new best-ever Pro-GM W-L record.
Phillies - Rockies: the Phillies look to keep their contender's discount hopes alive, but they'd need to win and hope for a Nationals loss and non-victories from the Reds and Cubs.
Blue Jays - Royals: the Blue Jays look to avoid the possibility of a messy tiebreaker for the first seed.
Rays - Orioles: one interpretation of the Yahoo rules could see the Rays winning the first seed despite being the Wild Card team. They'd need a win combined with a Blue Jays loss for that possibility to remain open.
Tigers - Red Sox: the Tigers need a win and a Rays loss to take the number two seed.
Quick note on tiebreakers:
1) If two teams finish tied for first place in a division, the division winner will be the team with the best record within the division (listed on the league standings under "div").
2) If teams remain tied, Yahoo then looks at winning percentage for the final week of the season, followed by winning percentage for the second-to-last week, followed by the third-to-last week, etc. Basically, it just goes backwards until it reaches a point where one team has a better recent-record than the other. In the event of a wild card tie, only this second tiebreaker is used. This second tiebreaker will also be used to determine playoff seeding if two division winners have the same record.
3) In the event of a three-(or more)-way tie atop a division that is also a three-(or more)-way tie for the Wild Card, the division winner is determined by the first method and the Wild Card winner is determined by the second.
NL East
Last week it seemed that the Phillies (12-8-1) were in the driver's seat, as they were tied for first with the superior record within the division. However their 7-5 loss to the Mets, combined with the Nationals' (13-7-1) 10-2 victory over the Braves, changes everything: the Nationals now have the better division record and are one game ahead. Each team has one game left, and neither game is against a team within the division. This means the best the Phillies can do is to tie the Nationals, in which case they would lose the tiebreaker due to the inferior record within the division. The Nationals have clinched the NL East!
NL Central
The Reds (13-8-0) defeated the Marlins 7-3 to stay in the lead. The Cubs (13-8-0) recorded a heavy 11-1 victory over the Rockies to keep pace. The Astros (11-9-1) lost a 6-5 heartbreaker to the Dodgers, and have been eliminated, as they are now 1.5 games back with one game left to play. The Reds face a challenging opponent in the Giants while the Cubs face the Cardinals. The teams are currently tied in the standings, and the Reds are only ahead by virtue of their record within the division. If either team has a better result than the other this week, that team will win the division. If the teams have the same result, the Reds will win on the tiebreaker.
NL West
The West was won long ago by the Diamondbacks (20-1-0), who this week defeated the Cardinals to set a new record for wins in a season. This week they face the Mets, needing only a tie to set a new best-ever W-L record. Should they lose, they will only equal the 2012 Giants, who finished 19-1-2.
NL Wild Card
The Giants (15-5-1) recorded a 9-2 win over the Brewers while the Dodgers (15-6-0) narrowly defeated the Astros 6-5 to keep pace 0.5 games behind. The Giants face the Reds while the Dodgers have been drawn against the Padres. Intradivisional record is irrelevant here - should the Dodgers win and the Giants tie, or the Dodgers tie and the Giants lose, the teams will end up tied and the second tiebreaker will determine the Wild Card winner. Since the Dodgers would need a better result than the Giants in order to tie the Giants, they would win any such tiebreaker, so as long as they better the Giants' result, the Wild Card is theirs. If the Giants equal or better the Dodgers' result, they will win the Wild Card. All other teams have been eliminated from Wild Card contention.
Playoff Seeding and Contender's Discounts
The number 1 seed has been clinched by the Diamondbacks, who will have a tiebreaker advantage over any team they face in the playoffs until the World Series.
The number 2 seed will go to either the Giants or the Dodgers, depending on which team makes the playoffs. Either team would have the tiebreaker advantage over any of the potential number 3 seeds.
The number 3 seed will go to the Nationals as long as they beat the Pirates. If they lose or tie, the NL Central winner can take the number 3 seed by achieving a better result.
The number 4 seed will go to the NL Central winner or the Nationals
At least one contender's discount will be handed out in the NL, and will go to the loser of the Wild Card race. However, should the Nationals lose, the loser of the NL Central race could be in line for a discount as well, assuming both the Reds and Cubs either tie or win and achieve an identical result. Should the Nationals lose and the Reds and Cubs both fail to win, the Phillies could earn a discount with a victory.
AL East
The Blue Jays (18-1-2) have clinched their first Pro-GM AL East title with an 8-4 victory over the Rangers. They can set a new AL best-ever W-L record with a win, which would also equal the 2012 Giants and, if they lose this week, the 2013 Diamondbacks for best Pro-GM record. Should they tie, they will equal the best-ever AL record with the 2012 Rays, who finished 19-2-1, but fail to match the 2012 Giants.
AL Central
The Tigers (15-2-4) lost 6-4 to the Rays, which only affects playoff seeding, as the Tigers clinched the division weeks ago.
AL West
The Mariners (13-7-1) increased the gap by winning 8-3 over the Red Sox. This race was already over by virtue of the tiebreak system, but now the Mariners have ensured that they will be alone atop the standings with no tiebreak needed.
AL Wild Card
This race has been over for weeks, although it still remained to be decided which team would win the AL East and which would receive the Wild Card as consolation. The Blue Jays clinched the AL East last week, so the Rays (17-2-2) are the Wild Card team.
Playoff Seeding and Contender's Discounts
The number 1 seed presents an odd situation: because we have chosen to seed teams entirely based on record, division winners do not automatically receive the top seeds. Ties are presumably broken by tiebreaker number 2 (above), which does not take into account divisional records. This means that, should the Blue Jays lose and the Rays win, it is conceivable that the Blue Jays could win the AL East but actually be given the number 2 seed while the Rays receive the number 1 seed despite being the Wild Card team. A close reading of the Yahoo rules does not address this situation, so in the unlikely event that it occurs, the outcome is unknown. Regardless of their seed, the Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker advantage over every other AL team in the playoffs.
The number 2 seed will go to the Rays unless they lose and the Tigers win against the Red Sox, in which case the Tigers will take the number 2 seed. Either way, the Rays will have the tiebreaker advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Should the bizarre situation outlined above unfold and the Blue Jays finish with the second seed, they too would have the tiebreaker advantage over the Tigers.
The number 3 seed has been clinched by the Tigers but could go to the Rays if the Tigers manage the second seed.
The number 4 seed will go to the Mariners.
No team in the AL will earn a contender's discount, as a significant gap exists between the records of the four playoff teams and those of the other teams.
Games to watch this week:
Reds - Giants: perhaps the biggest game of the season, even though the teams are running different races. The winner makes the playoffs, while the loser needs to hope help comes from elsewhere.
Cubs - Cardinals: the Cubs want to win to put the pressure on the Reds and put themselves in a position to capitalize on that difficult match-up.
Dodgers - Padres: the Dodgers want to win to put the pressure on the Giants and put themselves in a position to capitalize on that difficult match-up.
Diamondbacks - Mets: the Diamondbacks look to set a new best-ever Pro-GM W-L record.
Phillies - Rockies: the Phillies look to keep their contender's discount hopes alive, but they'd need to win and hope for a Nationals loss and non-victories from the Reds and Cubs.
Blue Jays - Royals: the Blue Jays look to avoid the possibility of a messy tiebreaker for the first seed.
Rays - Orioles: one interpretation of the Yahoo rules could see the Rays winning the first seed despite being the Wild Card team. They'd need a win combined with a Blue Jays loss for that possibility to remain open.
Tigers - Red Sox: the Tigers need a win and a Rays loss to take the number two seed.