World Series 2016

[Ben (Rays GM)]

Congratulations World Series teams! Specifically, the NL Champion Diamondbacks, who will be facing off against my AL Champion Rays in the 2016 World Series! This will be our first ever World Series re-match, as ARI and TB also faced each other in 2013, with the Rays finishing as champions. Hat-tip to Micah, who tells us that the Rays have only 3 remaining players from that championship team (Anthony Rizzo, Chris Sale, and Dan Straily) playing in the World Series this year, while the Diamondbacks have just one (Martin Prado).

That 2013 Series was the last year that World Series ties were a possibility. Since then the rules have been changed so that if the teams finish the series tied, only one will be declared champion based on how they would have done head-to-head if matched up against each other in every other week of the season (including postseason). If ARI and TB had faced off in each of the season's previous 24 weeks, the Rays would have won 22 against the Diamondbacks' 2, with 0 ties. As such, the Rays own the tiebreaker. Should a tiebreaker be needed, however, both teams will earn the 5% World Series discount (in addition to the 5% playoff discount, making it 10% total).

This year, the World Series will take place within a separate Fantrax League. I'm having trouble linking directly to the matchup but the league's link is here: www.fantrax.com/fantasy/league/guqp4w7pirm1ijrd/home
You'll notice that all four of the championship contenders are in the league, and there's a matchup for each of them to face each other team. The matchup you want is the one that pits ARI vs TB.

I'll post score updates here, probably not every day but as often as I can.

[Ben (Rays GM)]

To view the World Series, you can log in to the Fantrax league using the username "progmone" and the password "observation"

[Ben (Rays GM)]

Wednesday afternoon check in:

	PA	HR	BB	SB	AVG	XBH	IP	K	ERA	WHIP	QS	Sv	TOTAL
TB	64	5	8	2	.375	7	17.0	15	4.76	1.35	1	0	8
ARI	73	2	9	3	.286	6	12.1	10	7.30	2.11	0	1	4

Key performers so far:

Dee Gordon (TB): 5/9 (.556), 1 HR, 2 SB
George Springer (TB): 6/15 (.400), 1 HR, 2 XBH
Mike Trout (TB): 3/5 (.600), 1 HR, 3 BB

Jose Altuve (ARI): 4/12 (.333), 2 BB, 1 SB, 1 XBH
Troy Tulowitzki (ARI): 3/9 (.333), 3 XBH
J.D. Martinez (ARI): 3/7 (.429). 1 HR, 1 BB

Chris Sale (TB): 7 IP, 7 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, QS

Mark Melancon (ARI): 1 IP, 1 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, Sv

[Ben (Rays GM)]

Friday midday check in:

	PA	HR	BB	SB	AVG	XBH	IP	K	ERA	WHIP	QS	Sv	TOTAL
TB	118	6	14	3	.280	9	34.2	34	5.45	1.39	3	1	7
ARI	116	2	15	4	.260	9	26.1	24	4.78	1.75	1	2	4

[Ben (Rays GM)]

Saturday morning update:

	PA	HR	BB	SB	AVG	XBH	IP	K	ERA	WHIP	QS	Sv	TOTAL
TB	158	8	19	5	.267	12	45.0	43	5.80	1.38	4	1	8
ARI	149	4	19	4	.256	13	26.1	24	4.78	1.75	1	2	3

Key performers so far:

Dee Gordon (TB): 7/19 (.368), 1 HR, 3 SB
Nolan Arenado (TB): 6/15 (.400), 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 XBH
George Springer (TB): 7/19 (.368), 1 HR, 2 XBH
Mike Trout (TB): 4/12 (.333), 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 SB

Jose Altuve (ARI): 5/15 (.333), 2 BB, 1 SB, 1 XBH
Matt Carpenter (ARI): 3/12 (.250), 1 HR, 6 BB, 3 XBH
Nelson Cruz (ARI): 7/20 (.350), 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 SB

Jose Quintana (TB): 6 IP, 7 K, 3.00 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 1 QS

Francisco Liriano (ARI): 6.1 IP, 10 K, 0.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 1 QS
Mark Melancon (ARI): 1.2 IP, 2 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 2 Sv

Weekend preview:
The Diamondbacks go into the weekend behind by a large margin in total score, but by much smaller margins in many of the actual categories. Their best bet to win is to overcome narrow deficits in AVG and SB, while also taking the lead in BB. This would put the series tied at 6-6, and although the Rays would still be champion on the tiebreaker, it would at least give the Diamondbacks the additional discount. To take the crown, the Diamondbacks would likely also need to at least tie up HR (currently 8-4, but the return of Bryce Harper to the Diamondbacks could be a factor) or overcome a huge deficit in WHIP (1.75 against 1.38), which could be possible given that Lester, Hernandez, and Wainwright all pitch for the Diamondbacks against Sale and Gausman for the Rays. The Rays' offense will be taking aim at the Diamondbacks' one XBH lead, and Kenley Jansen and Zach Britton will try to overturn Mark Melancon's excellent work thus far in the saves category.

[Ben (Rays GM)]

Final Day Outlook:

	PA	HR	BB	SB	AVG	XBH	IP	K	ERA	WHIP	QS	Sv	TOTAL
TB	192	10	22	5	.248	14	46.1	46	6.41	1.49	4	1	7
ARI	184	5	26	9	.244	14	33.2	34	5.08	1.66	1	3	4

What to watch for:

Wow. I said yesterday when the Diamondbacks were down 5-4 in SBs that it would be one of the categories they needed to turn around. Thanks to 3 from Paul Goldschmidt and 2 from Jose Altuve, they did it emphatically, and now hold a commanding lead. They also needed to take the lead in BBs, which were previously tied at 19 but now stand heavily in the Diamondbacks favor after 7 walks yesterday, including 2 from Jose Abreu and 2 from, once again, Goldschmidt, the hero of the day despite going 0 for 2. The other key categories are AVG and XBH - the Rays have led AVG the whole way through, but that lead has narrowed steadily to just .004 points, which makes it a complete tossup today. XBH are tied at 14, so another tossup. If the Diamondbacks can win both, while holding their other leads (the only other one that was really in danger was saves, which is now 3-1 after another perfect performance from Melancon last night, this time a four out effort), the series will be tied 6-6. The tiebreaker would still go to the Rays, but it would mean both teams would earn the World Series discount, which would be some consolation to the Diamondbacks.

So, if AVG and XBH go their way, is there a way for the Diamondbacks to win one more category to win it all? The best bet seems to be WHIP. Yesterday the Rays held a 0.37 point lead. The Diamondbacks had Lester pitching, which wasn't much help - 5 innings, 6 Ks, 5 runs (9.00 ERA), 1.80 WHIP, but they saw good relief performances from Melancon and Betances to lower the overall WHIP by 0.09, to 1.66. But the Rays suffered through a difficult (non-save) inning from Kenley Jansen, who gave up two walks and a single to load the bases before striking out two to escape unscathed - in the process, however, putting up a 3.00 WHIP and raising the Rays' mark for the week by 0.11, to 1.49. The lead for the Rays has been cut by more than half to 0.17, and both teams have two starting pitchers today. If the Diamondbacks' Adam Wainwright (vs PIT) and Felix Hernandez (vs OAK) can out-pitch the Rays' Chris Sale (vs MIN) and Kevin Gausman (@nyy) in that department, there is a very clear path for them to take their revenge for 2013 and win the 2016 Pro-GM World Series crown.

[Ben (Rays GM)]

Champions!

All relevant games are over, which means that barring any unforeseen (and unanticipated) stat corrections, the Tampa Bay Rays are your 2016 Pro-GM Champions!

	PA	HR	BB	SB	AVG	XBH	IP	K	ERA	WHIP	QS	Sv	TOTAL
TB	226	10	26	7	.269	14	60.1	58	5.97	1.44	5	1	7
ARI	218	6	31	9	.257	17	43.2	45	4.95	1.60	2	4	5

Great battle, Oren! It got really close at the end there - just a matter of a couple hits (either by our hitters or given up by our pitchers) affecting the close outcome in AVG and WHIP.

On to the World Series MVP! We used to vote, but we haven't done that in a few years due to lack of interest/participation (if people want to bring it back, let me know!), so I'm just going to crown my own.

Your 2016 World Series MVP is Dee Gordon!
9/22 (.409), 1 HR, 4 SB

Since AVG was the closest category, I've got to give it to the guy who made the biggest difference there. Take away Dee's 9 for 22 line and it puts the Rays at .251 - the Diamondbacks win the category and earn the tie, even though Tampa Bay would still win on the tiebreaker. Those 4 SBs are also impressive in a highly contested category that Arizona ended up winning, and that home run might be one of the most memorable of 2016.