Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Sept 25, 2017 8:54:02 GMT -5
Congratulations to our two World Series teams: the NL Champion Chicago Cubs, and the AL Champion Toronto Blue Jays! Congratulations as well to Chris and Brian for guiding their teams to this final showdown.
As a reminder, if the World Series ends tied, we will use our own tiebreak system to determine the champion. The tie will be broken based on how the two teams would have done head-to-head if matched up against each other in every previous week of the season (including postseason). If CHC and TOR had faced off in each of the season's previous 24 weeks, the Blue Jays would have won 18 of these hypothetical matchups while the Cubs would have won 6. As such, the Blue Jays would win the tiebreaker. Should a tiebreaker be needed, however, both teams will earn the 5% World Series discount (in addition to the 5% playoff discount, making it 10% total).
I'll post score updates here, probably not every day but as often as I can.
Remaining scheduled SP (TOR): Corey Kluber (Sat vs CWS), Clayton Kershaw (Sat @ COL) Remaining scheduled SP (CHC): Chris Archer (SAT vs BAL), Drew Pomeranz (Sat vs HOU), Carlos Martinez (Sun vs MIL), Kevin Gausman (Sun @ TB)
Going into the weekend, the Cubs' best chance looks to be power hitting and pitching counting stats. Amazingly, although the Blue Jays have not lost IP a single time this season and have only lost K once, the Cubs might well be the favorites to take these stats even though they currently trail in both. The Blue Jays have two starters scheduled for the weekend: their two aces, Kershaw and Kluber, who both pitch this evening. The Cubs, on the other hand, have Archer and Pomeranz today, and Gausman and Martinez tomorrow. Given that CLE and LAD may be motivated to keep their aces' pitch counts low heading into the playoffs (especially with Kershaw pitching in Coors), Chicago will have a chance to overcome the 10 IP and 4 K deficits, as long as their pitchers aren't knocked out early, as has been the trend this week. The fact that they have a fully staffed bullpen (while the Blue Jays' is full of starters who aren't likely to start again) could also make the difference supplementing Ks and IP. With two closers to Toronto's one, they may be able to take SVs as well. Then they'd just need their bats to show some power so they can take one or both of XBH and HR. The most likely road to a Cubs victory would see them take the lead in IP, K, SV, and XBH, while protecting their leads in SB, BB, and PA. Don't get me wrong, the Blue Jays are still the favorites. They can make this extremely difficult for the Cubs by slugging a few more HRs and XBHs, or if Juan Minaya continues racking up the late season saves. Elite, deep performances from Kershaw and Kluber aren't out of the question either and would be just what Toronto needs to claim a second World Series title.
Last Edit: Oct 1, 2017 14:07:46 GMT -5 by Ben (Rays GM)
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Sept 30, 2017 8:57:17 GMT -5
Important note: the Dodgers have not yet announced their starter for Sunday's game. Dave Roberts has said that neither Darvish nor Wood, the two most likely candidates, will start and it will instead be a bullpen game. Should Wood get a few innings at some point, however, it could significantly aid the Blue Jays' chances.
Roberts has also said that Kershaw's start will be abbreviated: "There’s no number. But will it be abbreviated? Yes.”
Last Edit: Sept 30, 2017 8:58:29 GMT -5 by Ben (Rays GM)
Looking back at Saturday's games, a lot went right for Chicago, although there are some signs for optimism from Toronto's perspective as well. What went right for the Cubs: neither Kershaw nor Kluber pitched deep into their games for the Blue Jays, so Chris's hopes of catching TOR in IP and QS now look very likely. Archer and Pomeranz both pitched well to help in that cause, and also to help Chris take a narrow lead in WHIP. Chapman and Familia both earned SVs to increase Chris's chances of taking that category as well. What went right for the Blue Jays: Cubs pitcher Archie Bradley had an absolutely miserable relief appearance for Chris, which is why WHIP is still close (near tied) - and with Carlos Martinez's Sunday start cancelled, Chris now needs to hope that Gausman can help in the counting stats without blowing the narrow WHIP lead. Minaya earned a SV for Brian, meaning he has a chance to tie that category today if Minaya can record another without Chapman or Familia earning one. Three XBHs from Brian's offense (vs. just two for the Cubs) means there's a little more wiggle room in that category as well.
Category breakdown: Near sure-things for CHC: PA, BB, K Likely wins for CHC: SB, IP* Up in the air (leaning CHC): SV, WHIP Up in the air (leaning TOR): XBH Likely wins for TOR: HR, AVG Near sure-things for TOR: ERA, QS *IP is currently being led by TOR, but it's CHC's to lose given that they have more SP and RP likely to pitch today.
What to watch for: WHIP, XBH, and SVs are the keys here. The game to watch on Sunday is BAL @ TB. Kevin Gausman pitches for BAL (and for Chris). Chris needs him to put up around 5 innings with a respectable WHIP. If Gausman fails to do so, Chris will be relying heavily on his strong bullpen. As we get to late afternoon, check out NYY vs TOR, NYM @ PHI, and CHW @ CLE to see if Chapman, Familia, or Minaya can record saves. If either Chapman or Familia earns the save, CHC will win that category.
The Cubs completed the comeback to defeat the Blue Jays on the final day of the 2017 World Series. Needing 4.1 innings to catch the Blue Jays in that category (and to hand them their first IP loss of the entire season), the Cubs got a strong performance from Kevin Gausman: 7.0 IP, 9 K, 1.29 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and a QS. Most crucial was the WHIP, as the teams went into the day in a virtual tie but Gausman's performance allowed the Cubs to clinch that category. That would have been enough for the victory, but for insurance the Cubs also overcame a two XBH deficit thanks to contributions from Freddie Freeman (2) and Buster Posey.
As often happens in the final week of the season, both teams were somewhat understaffed due to real life managerial decisions. The Blue Jays in particular lost a number of scheduled starts due to teams choosing not to risk injury to key pitchers. Both teams were also struck with some injuries to their lineups and had three starters on the bench on Sunday.
Congratulations to both Chris and Brian for their excellent seasons and for winning their respective leagues!
Post by Chris (Former Cubs GM) on Oct 2, 2017 18:25:59 GMT -5
Like to say thanks to all the GMs who PMd to congratulate me. Also big thanks to Ben and Brian for keeping this thing going for 7 years now and to max and jon for the help behind the scenes. Guess while I'm at it I'll just thank everyone who participates in this league. I've been here 7 years and had a lot of baseball talks with most if not everyone here. I know I'm in a league with 29 legit baseball guys. Guess that's why it feels so good to be on top even if it only happens once.
