As a reminder, if the World Series ends tied, we will use our own tiebreak system to determine the champion. The tie will be broken based on how the two teams would have done head-to-head if matched up against each other in every previous week of the season (including postseason). If ARI and TOR had faced off in each of the season's previous 24 weeks, the Blue Jays would have won 15 of these hypothetical matchups while the Diamondbacks would have won 8, with 1 tie. As such, the Blue Jays would win a tiebreaker should it be needed and would be named champion. In this scenario, however, both teams would earn the World Series discount in free agency.
I'll post score updates here throughout the week. Good luck fellas!
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Sept 25, 2018 8:42:34 GMT -5
First day update:
PA
HR
SB
BB
AVG
XBH
IP
K
ERA
WHIP
QS
Sv
TOTAL
ARI
32
2
0
1
.276
6
7.0
10
2.57
1.29
0
0
4
TOR
27
1
1
2
.208
2
7.1
12
0.00
0.68
1
1
8
Lots of time for results to change, but definitely a few key impacts from Monday night's results:
6(!) XBHs from Oren's squad as all but one of the Diamondbacks who played Monday chipped in with one each (the exception being Orlando Arcia, in for the injured Didi Gregorius). That's the kind of large early lead that could carry over through the week. HRs from Robinson Cano and Marcell Ozuna give Arizona a narrow lead there as well over the one supplied by Toronto's Shohei Ohtani.
A Trea Turner SB puts Brian ahead in a category that he will likely hold, as Oren just doesn't have the speed to keep up with Turner, Jonathan Villar, and others. It's too early to read into the Diamondbacks' PA and AVG advantages, but both are categories they'll need to win so it's certainly encouraging for Oren.
Both teams received solid pitching, but it was Toronto's that stood out with Corey Kluber providing the quality start (7 IP, 11 K, 0.71 WHIP with no runs allowed) and Kirby Yates providing a one out save. Raisel Iglesias could keep the Diamondbacks competitive in the saves category, but with neither team holding much firepower in the closer department an early lead could be huge for Brian, who already has an advantage in the other pitching counting stats due to the sheer number of SPs he plays in his lineup. The Diamondbacks have to hope that Brian's reliance on quantity while leaning on potentially lesser quality SPs will drive up the Blue Jays' ERA and WHIP, but Kluber has helped the team get out on the right foot.
Overall, no major first day surprises. Arizona got the better offensive start, which is pretty much what they need to rely on in order to have a chance here in this series. Toronto got the better pitching start as expected and picked up a nice bonus advantage in the form of a Kirby Yates save.
Last Edit: Sept 25, 2018 8:44:35 GMT -5 by Ben (Rays GM)
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Sept 28, 2018 6:36:07 GMT -5
Halfway update:
PA
HR
SB
BB
AVG
XBH
IP
K
ERA
WHIP
QS
Sv
TOTAL
ARI
103
2
1
13
.235
10
14.2
20
4.30
1.64
0
0
3
TOR
111
4
4
13
.196
7
15.1
19
1.76
1.24
1
2
8
Just over halfway through, Brian will definitely be the happier of the two managers. Offensively, Oren's lead in AVG and XBHs has held but Shohei Ohtani's bat has put the Blue Jays ahead in HRs, while Jonathan Villar has all but locked up the SB category. Tyler Flowers' (4 PA) and Michael Brantley's (8 PA) lack of playing time has put the Diamondbacks behind in the PA category as well. There's still time to come back but it will be heavily dependent on which Blue Jays rest over the weekend.
On the surface, the pitching side of things seems to be going exactly how Toronto would want, as they have done what they needed to do to maintain a strong lead in ERA and WHIP, still largely thanks to Monday's performance by Kluber as well as mistakes by Arizona's bullpen. The assumption was always that the Blue Jays would win the three SP-influenced counting stats (IP, K, QS) due to the many SPs they have eligible from their RP spots, so if Brian could hold the rate stats it would give Oren very few other avenues to win. So far they've done that, and Kirby Yates' two saves have delivered yet another category. However, according to Yahoo's own projections, both teams still have four starters scheduled to pitch (Patrick Corbin, Mike Fiers, Corey Kluber, and Miles Mikolas for Toronto, Madison Bumgarner, Kyle Gibson, Robbie Ray, and Luis Severino for Arizona). These projections could be incorrect, as teams tend to swap starters at the last minute at the end of the season, but at the very least it would seem right now that those categories will be closer than expected, and possibly fully up for grabs.
The Diamondbacks would still appear to be the long shot here. The four most secure categories at this point are SBs, SVs, ERA, and WHIP, and all four favor the Blue Jays, who would also win a tiebreaker should it come for that. But with Arizona holding leads in XBH and AVG, and with all six other categories seemingly up for grabs, the winner is definitely still yet to be determined.
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Sept 29, 2018 8:13:49 GMT -5
Weekend update:
PA
HR
SB
BB
AVG
XBH
IP
K
ERA
WHIP
QS
Sv
TOTAL
ARI
141
2
3
15
.267
13
22.2
28
3.97
1.59
1
0
2
TOR
143
4
6
15
.222
9
24.1
29
3.28
1.22
1
2
8
Well looking at the scoreline you might not think much has changed from 24 hours ago... but a lot has, and nearly all in the Diamondbacks' favor. A lot of it has to do with what didn't happen last night.
Offensively the one major shift is in the PA category, as the rest of the offensive production looks pretty much the same as it did (although Robinson Cano's 4/5 night with an XBH should be noted - he's moved himself into the "key performers" list below - as well as Shohei Ohtani's 3/3 with a SB and XBH). But last night Max Muncy and Yasiel Puig did not start, and Arizona was able to seize on that opportunity to turn PAs back into a tossup, as they now trail by only 2 there.
On the pitching side of things, you already see that ERA is now a lot closer than it was. That's important, and I'll get to that. But probably more important is this: I mentioned yesterday that both teams had four starts remaining from their rotations. The Blue Jays received two of those "starts" last night, from Patrick Corbin and Mike Fiers... except that Fiers' turned out not to be a start at all, as he instead took over in the second inning following an opener. He struggled, giving up 5 earned runs and allowing the Diamondbacks to close the gap in ERA for the week. But most crucially he only went 3.1 innings. Corbin pitched well but his start was truncated also and he was pulled after the fifth, shy of the quality start. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, received one start last night from Madison Bumgarner, who wasn't brilliant but did manage to go six innings and secure the QS. Toronto now holds a 1.2 IP and 1 K lead over Arizona, while QS is now tied, but while Brian only has two starts remaining (Corey Kluber and Miles Mikolas, both today) Oren still has three (Kyle Gibson today, Robbie Ray and Luis Severino tomorrow). With the season winding down anything could happen to cut these starts short or even cancel them, with teams either protecting their arms or saving them for the playoffs (Severino and Kluber in particular, one would think, will have short leashes), but at this time one would probably have to consider the Diamondbacks strong favorites to win IP and K even though they're currently behind, as well as a better than even chance to win QS.
The Diamondbacks should win AVG, XBH, IP, and K, although none is a sure thing. The Blue Jays should win SB, SV, and WHIP, and all three are pretty sure things. Of the five remaining open categories, HR, ERA, and to a lesser extent PA still favor Toronto, and winning all three would be enough to secure the World Series for them. Brian is still the favorite here. BB remains a tossup while QS favors Arizona. Oren will have to hope he can take three of those five open categories along with the holding the first four. But ERA and PA are a lot closer than they were, and neither team's offense has really woken up yet from a HRs standpoint, and that could still happen (Bryce Harper is visiting Coors this weekend...).
A lot of bad luck has fallen on the Blue Jays (Mike Minor and Luis Castillo getting shut down, OAK's Fiers opener decision backfiring) but despite it all they still remain ahead and the favorite. But the Diamondbacks are in it now, and ready to capitalize on any last blessings thrown their way. The last two days of this World Series will be exciting to follow.
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Sept 30, 2018 9:24:24 GMT -5
Final day update:
PA
HR
SB
BB
AVG
XBH
IP
K
ERA
WHIP
QS
Sv
TOTAL
ARI
169
3
3
18
.271
14
32.2
41
3.31
1.38
2
1
2
TOR
190
6
6
20
.223
13
38.2
43
3.03
1.19
2
2
9
In some ways, yesterday actually went pretty well for both teams. But Brian is definitely going to be the confident manager going into the final day here due to some key developments.
On the offensive side of things, the key development was in the PA category. While the Diamondbacks had three players - Tyler Flowers, Wil Myers, and Orlando Arcia - miss all or part of their teams' games on Saturday, the Blue Jays had multiple players - Max Muncy, Trea Turner, and Jonathan Villar - get at least 6 plate appearances. The PA category is now firmly locked in for the Blue Jays. Brian also closed the gap in XBH and took the lead in BB.
Of the pitchers, Miles Mikolas was the hero Toronto needed, going 8 innings without giving up an earned run. Kyle Gibson answered back with a QS of his own for Arizona, going 6 innings with one earned run. The rate stats are closer now, as Corey Kluber struggled for the Blue Jays and Oren's bullpen was able to contribute positively (Raisel Iglesias' save gives him a glimmer of hope to tie that category today) but perhaps the key development is the announcement that Luis Severino will no longer be starting today for the Diamondbacks. With Severino out, Arizona will have to hope for a strong start from Robbie Ray and more aid from their bullpen to have a chance to win those counting stats and possibly steal a rate stat.
The bottom line for the Diamondbacks is that they need to hope for the IPs from the bullpen and the QS from Ray to win those two categories. They will likely take Ks. If they can also win ERA while holding their leads in AVG and XBH, they have a shot at the title if they can win or tie one other stat - BB, HR, and SV being their best hopes. The bottom line for the Blue Jays is that they will likely be winning their second title today, and a strong offensive showing would be the best way for them to lock that in early.
