Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Sept 23, 2019 7:42:32 GMT -5
Congratulations Max and Brian! The World Series this year will feature the Washington Nationals and the Toronto Blue Jays.
For the Nationals this is their first World Series appearance. It has been a long road, but Max's efforts to turn this team into a winner have paid off!
For the Blue Jays this is a Pro-GM record fourth World Series appearance, and their third appearance in a row, which is also a league first. The word "dynasty" comes to mind.
As a reminder, if the World Series ends tied, we will use our own tiebreak system to determine the champion. The tie will be broken based on the hypothetical result of matching these two teams against each other each week of the 2019 season. So if the teams had played each other every previous week of the season (including postseason), whichever team would have won more matchups would be our tiebreak winner.
If WAS and TOR had faced off in each of the season's previous 24 weeks, the Nationals would have won 12 of these hypothetical matchups while the Blue Jays would have won 11, with 1 tie. As such, should a tiebreaker be needed the Nationals would be named champion. In this scenario, however, both teams would earn the World Series discount in free agency.
Last Edit: Sept 23, 2019 8:56:29 GMT -5 by Ben (Rays GM)
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Sept 23, 2019 8:49:50 GMT -5
Analysis:
This is the first time since 2014 that the NL has held the World Series tiebreaker. At 12-11-1, it is also the closest tiebreaker since that year (11-10-3), suggesting a very even matchup. The tiebreaker alone doesn't necessarily paint the full picture, however. Going back through the season it became clear that these teams have had ups and downs which tell their own story. In fact, the season can be neatly broken into three equal periods of eight weeks each. The first period was even, with the teams splitting their first eight matchups 4-4. The second period heavily favored Max, with 6 wins for the Nationals against 1 win for the Blue Jays and 1 tie. The most recent period favors Brian, with 6 wins for the Blue Jays against 2 for the Nationals, though those two Nationals wins came recently, in weeks 21 and 24 (24 being our most recent week) suggesting they may be evening out again (thanks perhaps to the Blue Jays recent injury woes, which I'll get to shortly).
The overall statistical picture favors Brian, with the Blue Jays winning 9 out of 12 categories based on team totals:
HR
SB
BB
AVG
XBH
PA
IP
SV
K
ERA
WHIP
QS
TOTAL
WAS
229
63
470
269
500
5053
1197.2
56
1273
3.21
1.13
109
3
TOR
237
116
501
.271
540
5540
1347.0
26
1441
4.22
1.24
110
9
Of course, many of these categories are virtual ties. The Blue Jays' most significant leads are in SB, IP, and K, while the Nationals lead SV and ERA by large margins. Both teams' offenses clearly pack a punch, while Toronto brings more speed to the table. On the pitching side of things, Brian has as usual built his team to win the counting stats (IP, K, QS), with multiple SPs pitching out of the bullpen due to duel eligibility at RP. This does however explain the Blue Jays' disadvantage in saves, although at present both teams have just one closer (Kirby Yates for WAS, Liam Hendriks for TOR) suggesting the category might best be considered even. What's definitely clear is Washington's advantage in the rate stats - with a rotation consisting of five potential aces in deGrom, Corbin, Kershaw, Severino, and Bumgarner, the rate stats are where the quality of the Nationals pitching should shine through. The strength of these pitchers also explains why the Nationals have kept pace with the Blue Jays in QS despite receiving far fewer innings and appearances from their starters. One thing that will affect both teams is the potentially shorter leash that some of these starters will have in their final starts of the regular season, with teams limiting their starters' innings as September comes to a close.
Injuries:
Injuries are going to play a part in this series, without a doubt. Washington has the cleaner bill of health, with David Dahl and Dellin Betances as Max's most significant missing players. Luis Severino, meanwhile, has just returned from a season-long absence and has a 0.00 ERA through 9 innings. On Toronto's side a plethora of minor injuries are keeping some of Brian's key hitters out of the lineup. Max Kepler and Gary Sanchez have been out of action for a while and although both might make it back before the season ends, Brian can't afford to gamble on when those returns might be. Freddie Freeman is staying home for his next series as a precaution, and Max Muncy has been missing chunks of time all month. Brian does carry significant depth on his roster, and he appears to have decided to bench all four players in favor of guys with less threatening offensive ability but better chances to play all week.
Key Players:
Jonathan Villar and Trea Turner (TOR): Villar is arguably Brian's best healthy hitter. Both of Toronto's middle infielders provide speed, and how much these two (and Victor Robles) choose to run this week will determine how well the Blue Jays perform in one of their strongest categories.
Jacob deGrom, Patrick Corbin, Clayton Kershaw, Luis Severino, and Madison Bumgarner (WAS): Max's quintet of aces provide a heavy advantage in ERA and WHIP, and if the majority of them can earn quality starts, Brian's army of SP/RPs might not be able to catch up.
Kirby Yates (WAS) and Liam Hendriks (TOR): a stat-correction in the saves category played a big part in TOR's ALCS win (though it didn't end up being the difference in the end). In what should prove to be a close matchup, winning saves could be the difference, and it all comes down to these two.
Good luck to both teams!
Last Edit: Sept 23, 2019 8:52:18 GMT -5 by Ben (Rays GM)
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Sept 26, 2019 7:21:02 GMT -5
Midweek Update:
HR
SB
BB
AVG
XBH
PA
IP
SV
K
ERA
WHIP
QS
TOTAL
WAS
1
0
8
.164
3
81
24.0
0
24
2.25
0.83
2
4
TOR
4
2
10
.330
12
112
19.0
1
24
5.21
0.89
1
7
The Blue Jays' offense continues to look strong, while the Nationals' pitching is keeping them competitive. But a Liam Hendriks save for Toronto last night makes things much tougher for Washington - with 3 SPs remaining for WAS this week vs 6 for TOR (barring rotation shuffling typical of this time of the year), one would have to expect the Blue Jays to win the IP and K categories. Max needs to hold ERA, WHIP, and QS while finding a way to win three other categories, which makes SVs seem like a must-win. Perhaps the his bats will come alive to take BBs and either HRs or SBs, or perhaps the injury to the Jays' Jeff McNeill will give the Nats a chance to narrow the PA gap. The three starting pitchers remaining for Washington are Kershaw, Corbin, and Severino, so perhaps those three aces can find a way to hold Toronto off in strikeouts or innings. The Nationals still have a chance and a few ways to stay in this, but the Blue Jays are clearly looking like the favorites at this point.
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Sept 28, 2019 8:02:12 GMT -5
Weekend Update:
HR
SB
BB
AVG
XBH
PA
IP
SV
K
ERA
WHIP
QS
TOTAL
WAS
2
1
14
.139
4
124
31.0
0
31
1.74
0.74
3
5
TOR
8
4
12
.324
22
166
25.2
2
35
6.31
1.13
1
7
The Nationals starters continue to do everything they can to give Max a chance in this matchup, but the offense just can't seem to keep up. They finally took the lead in BBs last night to give the team some hope, but so far it's not enough. The Nats have a good chance to hold all five categories that they currently lead, but they'll still have to find a way to win one more in order to force a tiebreaker and win the World Series. So which category could it be? 7 HRs in two days is by no means impossible, but so far this week the team has shown a complete lack of power. Or maybe a couple of Washington's speedier players will decide to pat their SB stats this final weekend. AVG, XBH, and PA certainly seem like locks for the Blue Jays. Perhaps Max's best hope is for his three remaining starters (Corbin, Severino, and Bumgarner) and his stronger and more numerous relievers to out-K the Blue Jays, whose four remaining SPs (Matz, Means, Cole, and Williams) aren't quite as strong, especially if Cole is held to a shorter leash, or even skipped, on Sunday. BB, IP, K, ERA, WHIP, and QS would give Washington six categories, enough to win the tiebreaker.
For Brian, the goal is to make that unlikely comeback even more difficult by locking down more categories. A few more HRs and SBs wouldn't hurt, while one more Liam Hendriks save would be a nice luxury (at the moment the Nats can only tie saves, which isn't enough unless they tie another category). If winning Ks is Max's best hope though, then the Jays' primary goal has to be to maximize strikeouts from their remaining SPs. Cole is the big time strikeout pitcher with double digit Ks in eight consecutive starts, tied for the major league record. While there's a chance that he's skipped or removed early to preserve him for HOU's postseason, the opportunity for him to claim that record for himself and to win his 20th game (heading into real-life FA with a strong shot at the Cy Young) may keep him in. Matz, Means, and Williams will attempt to help pad the K lead as well, though the latter two are nobody's strikeout pitchers. If they all stay in their games long enough they can make things difficult, not only with Ks but perhaps IP or QS as well. Of course, all Brian really needs to do is take BBs back and it becomes a lot more difficult for Max.
Prediction: the Blue Jays are probably favorites regardless, but I'll go out on a limb and say if Cole pitches Brian wins, if he doesn't, Max wins on the tiebreaker.
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Sept 29, 2019 6:50:38 GMT -5
Final Day Update:
HR
SB
BB
AVG
XBH
PA
IP
SV
K
ERA
WHIP
QS
TOTAL
WAS
3
1
16
.137
6
157
38.1
0
43
3.29
0.97
3
4
TOR
8
5
12
.309
25
202
40.1
2
52
4.69
1.12
2
8
Blue Jays pitchers were tasked with making things difficult for the Nationals by recording as many Ks as they could. John Means did his job, while Steven Matz and Max Fried did theirs and more. 5 innings and 5 Ks for Means got things started, but Matz stole the show with 6 shutout innings and 7 Ks (and a QS). Max Fried came in for a relief appearance and added 5 Ks in 3.2 shutout innings of his own.
Patrick Corbin started off well for Washington and ended up with an impressive 8 Ks in 4.1 innings, the kind of dominant strikeout performance they were looking for... but Max needed Corbin to stay in a little longer in order to rack up a few more, and instead he was chased from the game after giving up 6 runs. Luis Severino settled down after a rough first inning, but still only completed 3 innings, with 4 Ks. But the biggest pitching development for the Nationals came in the form of an announcement: Madison Bumgarner will not be making his scheduled start today. With that news, Max has no SPs on Sunday, while Brian has two in Gerrit Cole and Trevor Williams. Without any scheduled SPs, there's really no way for the Nats to pick up additional pitching categories; holding the three they currently hold (ERA, WHIP, QS) is all they can really hope for, and even those three don't seem as secure today after the Jays' strong Saturday.
That means that for Max to win this thing he's going to need to win at least three offensive categories, which is going to be a monumental task for an offense that has struggled so much. Outside of BBs, none of the offensive categories seem up for grabs. A Sunday HR barrage appears to be the best opportunity (while still highly unlikely), and it wouldn't even be enough on its own. AVG, XBHs, and PAs still seem impossible, and SBs seems extremely improbable. But Max would need to win BBs, HRs, and one of those additional categories to have a chance, barring something extremely unlikely on the pitching side of things (maybe the Giants bring Bumgarner in for the save, while Kirby Yates saves one for the Padres and Yonny Chirinos - not a closer - saves one for the Rays?... I think we're grasping at straws here).
It ain't over 'til it's over though, and whatever happens, congratulations to both teams for making it this far.
Post by Ben (Rays GM) on Sept 30, 2019 7:47:11 GMT -5
Final Score:
HR
SB
BB
AVG
XBH
PA
IP
SV
K
ERA
WHIP
QS
TOTAL
WAS
7
1
16
.191
12
181
42.0
0
46
3.86
0.98
3
2
TOR
8
7
16
.307
26
227
52.1
2
52
3.96
1.11
3
8
Congratulations to Brian and the Toronto Blue Jays, your 2019 Pro-GM champions! The Blue Jays are the first back-to-back champions in league history, and the first team ever to win three titles.
The Nationals' final day efforts should be recognized here: they nearly tied up HRs after trailing by a large margin all week, and clawed back over .050 points of batting average in one day. To have any chance in this matchup they needed an impossibly huge offensive day, and while they didn't achieve what they needed, it was still an impressive performance by Max's bats: 12/23 (.522) with 4 HRs and 6 XBHs.
But the Blue Jays simply could not be caught, and they ended the series with an emphatic pitching display. As recently as Saturday morning the team's ERA was over 6, but Gerrit Cole and Trevor Williams (along with Matz, Means, and Fried yesterday) were able to lower it into the 3s, nearly catching the Nats. Williams recorded a QS, tying that category for Brian, while Cole, this year’s World Series MVP, picked up 10 Ks in 5 IP (a major league record 9th-straight double digit performance). Though the team's bats were quieter, they did manage to tie BBs, the one offensive category in which they had ever trailed.
Both teams had excellent seasons and both flags have been raised on our league's banner! Congratulations to Brian and Max both.
